PromptNCE: Conditional Probabilities and PMI Using Only LLMs and Contrastive Estimation Prompts

While post-training has successfully improved large language models (LLMs) across a variety of domains, these gains heavily rely on human-labeled data or external verifiers. Existing data has already been exploited, and new data is expensive to collect. Moreover, true intelligence goes far beyond verifiable tasks. Therefore, we need self-improvement frameworks that are less dependent on external signals and more broadly applicable to both verifiable and non-verifiable domains. We propose Mutual Information Preference Optimization (MIPO), a contrastive data augmentation method that constructs preference pairs by generating a positive response conditioning on the correct prompt, and a negative response by conditioning on a random, unrelated prompt. We show that using Direct Preference Optimization to learn from this paired data maximizes pointwise mutual information under the base LLM between prompts and model responses. Experiments with with 1-7B parameter Llama and Qwen instruct models show that MIPO achieves 3-16% gains (and 51% increase for Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct) on personalization compared to prompting baselines. Surprisingly, MIPO can also be useful in verifiable domains, such as math and multiple-choice question answering, yielding 1-20% gains without any additional data or external supervision. These results suggest a promising direction for self-improvement using intrinsic signals derived from contrastive data pairs.

In this paper, we define the quantity of prompting complexity: for a fixed instruction-tuned language model, what is the shortest plausible prompt that makes deterministic decoding produce a target text? It is an LM-relative analogue of resource-bounded Kolmogorov complexity: the prompt is a program, the model interface is the interpreter, and information omitted from the prompt is supplied by the model's weights, training distribution, tokenizer, template, and decoding rule. Unlike classical Kolmogorov complexity, this measure is intentionally non-universal. In the finite-context setting it is computable by enumeration, but there is no model-independent invariance theorem; the same text may be cheap for one model and inaccessible or expensive for another. To keep the search space aligned with prompt engineering, we restrict programs to plausible human-readable texts rather than arbitrary token strings. We extend the exact definition to soft prompting complexity for approximate outputs, yielding a lossy notion of model-relative text compression and a formal target for prompt optimization. We also define prompting distance by comparing shortest generating prompts, and behavioral prompting complexity for reaching any output satisfying a specification. Based on these formulations, we define a research agenda for empirically studying which texts and behaviors are accessible from short plausible prompts under a fixed LM interface.

Mutual information (MI) estimation is a central problem in machine learning and statistics; however, existing benchmarks typically evaluate estimators on simplified, low-dimensional distributions, leaving their performance on complex, realistic data largely unexplored. We address this gap with a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in a unified copula-theoretic perspective that subsumes existing benchmarks as special cases. Within this framework, we propose two complementary families of tests: a copula-first family that systematically varies ground-truth MI, dimensionality, and marginal complexity using synthetic and flow-based transformations; and a marginals-first family that couples real-world image data with controlled dependency structures, extending the classic same-class-pairing paradigm. We use this suite to extensively evaluate three classes of estimators: non-parametric, discriminative, and generative. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, our results indicate that there is no universal winner: each category can systematically outperform all other estimators under specific setups. By analyzing these cases, we identify fundamental estimation barriers and propose new tests that more effectively stress these specific limitations. We share the open source code at https://github.com/VanessB/mutinfo.