The Readout Shortcut: Positional Number Copying Dominates Arithmetic CoT Readout in Small Language Models

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting remains the standard baseline for evaluating models' reasoning abilities. Originally, this technique was introduced to elicit step-by-step reasoning from large language models (LLMs), which would otherwise tend to directly output the final answer. However, many modern LLMs produce CoT-style responses \textit{natively} when presented with reasoning tasks, which made us revisit the effectiveness of standard CoT prompting. We evaluate several modern mid-sized language models on a math problem-solving task and find that models specialized for reasoning achieve better performance in a simple zero-shot setting than when using few-shot CoT examples - significantly surpassing officially reported results at no additional cost (e.g., from $\sim$77% to $\sim$84% for Mathstral on GSM8K). For the tested general-purpose model, a zero-shot CoT prompt is also sufficient to outperform a few-shot CoT baseline. We attribute this to a `guidance-distraction' tradeoff: standard CoT prompting also demands style adaptation, formatting compliance, and potentially undesired contextualization, which can distract models from the core reasoning task. Our findings suggest that using standard CoT prompting increasingly acts as a source of distraction as models grow stronger.

Whether intermediate reasoning is computationally useful or merely explanatory depends on whether chain-of-thought (CoT) tokens contain task-relevant information. We present a mechanistic causal analysis of CoT on GSM8K using activation patching: transferring token-level hidden states from a CoT generation to a direct-answer run for the same question, then measuring the effect on final-answer accuracy. Across models, generating after patching yields substantially higher accuracy than both direct-answer prompting and the original CoT trace, revealing that individual CoT tokens can encode sufficient information to recover the correct answer, even when the original trace is incorrect. This task-relevant information is more prevalent in correct than incorrect CoT runs and is unevenly distributed across tokens, concentrating in mid-to-late layers and appearing earlier in the reasoning trace. Moreover, patching language tokens such as verbs and entities carry task-solving information that steers generation toward correct reasoning, whereas mathematical tokens encode answer-proximal content that rarely succeeds. Patched outputs are often shorter and yet exceed the accuracy of a full CoT trace, suggesting complete reasoning chains are not always necessary. Together, these findings demonstrate that CoT encodes recoverable, token-level problem-solving information, offering new insight into how reasoning is represented and where it breaks down.

Large language models often answer complex reasoning questions without revealing intermediate steps, raising whether they reason latently or complete patterns. We propose the Hidden CoT Detection Score (HCDS), a comparative behavioral and mechanistic signal measuring whether neutral-prompt behavior aligns more closely with explicit CoT or explicit no- CoT. Here, hidden CoT operationally denotes this neutral-prompt CoT-like alignment; HCDS does not directly observe or prove an unexposed reasoning trace. On GSM8K, HCDS is significantly positive for both Qwen3-4B variants (Thinking $+1.87$, $p = 1.2 \times 10^{-7}$; Instruct $+1.41$, $p = 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$), replicates across a different inference stack and quantization within $0.08$ ($+1.80$ and $+1.45$), and is not significantly positive in seven of eight length-adjusted calibration-control cells. The unadjusted score produces large positive scores on single-step arithmetic and numeric factual lookup. The variants also respond differently to no-CoT instructions: Instruct complies from the prompt alone, whereas Thinking continues reasoning and requires intervention. These findings show stronger, less prompt-conditional CoT-like behavior in the reasoning-tuned model, consistent with but not proof of latent reasoning. HCDS thus investigates latent reasoning without relying on models' self-reported traces.