Clustering based on Stochastic Dominance with application for risk averters and risk seekers
Authors: Hua Li, Xue Jia, Yilin Kang, Wing-Keung Wong
Abstract
Stochastic Dominance (SD) theory provides a rigorous framework for selecting superior assets tailored to the asset allocation needs of investors with varying risk preferences (i.e., risk-averse, risk-seeking, and risk-neutral). However, traditional stock clustering methods typically rely on geometric metrics such as Euclidean distance, which often fail to effectively capture the intrinsic risk dominance relationships among assets. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an innovative clustering analysis framework based on SD test statistics. Methodologically, this study deeply integrates SD theory with machine learning algorithms. Transcending the limitations of traditional reliance on geometric distance, we innovatively utilize test statistics from first-, second-, and third-order SD to construct a "Stochastic Dominance Coefficient Matrix." Building upon this matrix, we modify the classic K-means and Hierarchical Clustering algorithms. Specifically, we derive 12 distinct algorithm variants tailored to different orders of SD relationships. Simultaneously, we construct the SD-SC coefficient and the SD-DBI index as specialized validity indices to evaluate the clustering performance. Empirically, we analyze constituent stock data from a representative developed market (the US NASDAQ Index) and an emerging market (China's CSI 100 Index). The results verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Furthermore, we apply the clustering results to the modification of the Single Index Model and the construction of Global Minimum Variance Portfolios (GMVP). The findings demonstrate that the proposed method effectively facilitates customized asset allocation for investors, holding significant theoretical value and practical implications.
This paper introduces an algorithm-agnostic approach to feature-based time series clustering via amortized neural inference. By training neural networks to approximate the optimal partitioning rule from simulated data, the proposed framework reduces reliance on conventional clustering methods, such as K-means, K-medoids, or hierarchical clustering, and their associated objective functions and heuristics. Leveraging statistical features, such as autocorrelations and quantile autocorrelations, the approach learns a data-driven affinity structure from which clustering partitions can be recovered, without requiring explicit prior specification of cluster shapes or structures. In addition, one version of the method can automatically determine the number of clusters, avoiding ad-hoc selection procedures. Comprehensive empirical studies show that the proposed framework achieves competitive or superior clustering accuracy relative to traditional methods, even in challenging scenarios where competing techniques are provided with the true number of clusters. An application to financial time series of stock returns illustrates its practical utility. By reducing the need for algorithm selection and calibration, the proposed framework opens new possibilities for automated, adaptive, and data-driven clustering of temporal data across scientific and industrial domains.
Current portfolio construction methods are either agnostic to the effects of idiosyncratic shocks (standard factor models) or to the latent data structure driving systematic returns (recent graph-based approaches). This presents an opportunity to combine the complementary market aspects captured by the factor and graph domains, allowing asset allocations to operate directly on the underlying market structure, rather than on its observed co-movement or its finite-sample artefacts. In this work, we introduce the Mutually-INformed Graph-Locality and Exposures framework (MINGLE), which mutually regularises the factor and graph domains by redefining graph locality through systematic factor exposure profiles, rather than via observed co-movements. This is formalised through a unified Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework that jointly learns a latent factor representation and its induced graph topology directly from market returns. The resulting exposure-similarity graph aligns more closely with established economic sectors than conventional correlation-based graphs. Portfolios constructed from this representation are shown to consistently outperform their correlation-based counterparts across a range of volatility regimes and transaction cost levels. For rigour, paired statistical testing confirms that these gains stem from the reconciliation of the graph and factor domains.
Sara Chehab, Giorgos Iacovides, Parisa Yazdanparast +1
Many existing clustering methods are designed based on a set-oriented definition---a cluster is a set of similar points---relying a point-to-point similarity function to find similar points. This works well for compact clusters, but clustering performance can deteriorate badly when cluster shapes are irregular, and densities or sizes vary between clusters. Recent `Cluster-as-Distribution' (CaD) clustering has been shown to discover these generic types of clusters in practice by treating each cluster as a set of independent and identically distributed points generated from some unknown distribution via a greedy search, achieving a clustering objective equivalent to that of Spectral Clustering, but with better clustering outcomes without eigen-decomposition. However, a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon is still lacking. Our analyses are from two angles. First, we analyze the approximation error between the true and empirical distribution embeddings. Second, we show that the greedy search employed to achieve the CaD clustering objective can be mapped to a partition matroid---yielding greedy optimality. These yield a near-optimality guarantee for the CaD clustering objective, with regret controlled by the approximation error. This is the first analysis that explains why CaD clustering via greedy search can discover clusters of arbitrary shapes, densities and sizes (where all set-oriented clustering methods have failed to discover) when the estimated cluster embeddings faithfully approximate the underlying cluster distributions.