T2S-MPC: Time-Embedded Online Adaptive Model Predictive Control for Time-Varying Dynamics
Authors: Zeyu Shen, Zhuoyuan Wang, Laixi Shi
Organizations: Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, MD, USA. · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, PA, USA. · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, MD, USA.
Abstract
Recent advances in learning-based model predictive control (MPC) have leveraged neural networks for online model learning, achieving strong performance when nonstationary system dynamics deviate from nominal models. However, existing approaches primarily address specific or relatively structured forms of dynamical variation, leaving more general, unknown, and unpredictable time-varying dynamics insufficiently handled. To tackle this challenge, we propose T2S-MPC, a framework that adaptively learns a residual dynamics model online and integrates it with the nominal model within the MPC framework to enable fast-evolving online planning. To make the model time-aware, we explicitly encode temporal information through a structured time embedding and employ a two-timescale update scheme, allowing the controller to capture nonstationary dynamics while balancing rapid adaptation with stable learning. We evaluate the proposed method on a 2D quadrotor across stabilization and trajectory tracking tasks under diverse time-varying disturbances, including linear drifting and periodic perturbations. Experimental results show that T2S-MPC consistently outperforms classical MPC, neural MPC, and ablated variants in control performance, while also demonstrating strong robustness across a wide range of disturbance conditions without additional tuning. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/Zeyuu0920/T2S_MPC
Koopman-based neural MPC models generate time-varying dynamics from historical data, but preserve convexity by enforcing that the system operator is independent of the current control input. This conditional independence constraint limits adaptation to changing dynamics within a single MPC horizon, particularly under time-varying conditions and under stale-plan execution. We propose Bilinear Mamba-Koopman Neural MPC, a minimal extension that introduces control-dependent coupling in the latent dynamics, allowing the effective operator to adapt to the current input. The resulting model is a strict generalization of the standard linear, conditional-independence formulation, adds less than 1% parameters through a low-rank structure, and admits exact model Jacobians that enable efficient Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) with monotone-descent and KKT convergence results under standard trust-region assumptions. Across CartPole and RSCP benchmarks in time-invariant and time-varying regimes, the proposed model matches or improves forecasting accuracy on every cell when training noise is averaged out, with strict gains where control-state coupling is structurally present. Its main closed-loop gains appear in the RSCP TV task, where iterative SCP improves adaptation within the horizon and substantially stabilizes training; in CartPole TV, the gains are modest but consistent. In delayed re-planning experiments on the time-varying variants, the bilinear model degrades more gracefully under stale-plan execution, maintaining a consistent advantage on CartPole TV and a substantially larger robustness margin on RSCP TV. These results show that control-dependent latent dynamics provide a simple and effective mechanism for robust MPC under varying conditions.
Actor-Critic Model Predictive Control (MPC) effectively addresses complex, non-convex control problems, but guaranteeing the closed-loop stability of sequence-based learning models within these pipelines remains challenging. This paper introduces a novel Transformer-Actor-Critic MPC architecture with formal robustness guarantees. First, we prove that Transformer networks can satisfy global incremental Input-to-State Stability (δISS). We then leverage Riemannian contraction theory to analyze the interconnected dynamics between the physical plant and the predictive neural network. Finally, we integrate these theoretical bounds as a training regularizer to yield a certifiably robust policy. The framework is validated on a nonlinear 3D drone model executing target-reaching and obstacle-avoidance maneuvers.
Accurate dynamics models are critical for aerial manipulators operating under complex tasks such as payload transport. However, modeling these systems remains fundamentally challenging due to strong quadrotor-manipulator coupling, delayed aerodynamic interactions, and regime-dependent dynamics variations arising from payload changes and manipulator reconfiguration. These effects produce residual dynamics that are simultaneously cross-coupled, history-dependent, and nonstationary, causing both analytical models and purely offline learned models to degrade during deployment. To address these challenges, we propose a structured encoder-decoder framework for adaptive residual dynamics learning in aerial manipulators. The proposed nonlinear latent encoder captures cross-variable coupling and temporal dependencies from state-input histories, while a lightweight linear latent decoder enables online adaptation under regime-dependent nonstationary dynamics. The linear-in-parameter decoder structure permits closed-form Bayesian adaptation together with consistency-driven covariance inflation, enabling rapid and stable adaptation to both transient and slowly varying dynamics changes while remaining compatible with real-time model predictive control (MPC). Experimental results on a real aerial manipulation platform demonstrate improved residual prediction accuracy, faster adaptation under changing operating conditions, and enhanced MPC-based trajectory tracking performance. These results highlight the importance of jointly modeling coupled temporal dynamics and deployment-time nonstationarity for reliable aerial manipulation.