Towards Generalization-Oriented Models for Vehicle Routing Problems with Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale by activating only a small subset of experts per token. However, training such models remains challenging because top-$k$ routing is discrete and non-differentiable, requiring gradient estimators for expert selection whose design remains a central open problem. We introduce ProbMoE, a probabilistic routing framework that models expert selection as a distribution over cardinality-constrained expert subsets and formulates routing as probabilistic inference in this discrete subset space. We first propose ProbMoE Exact-$k$ routing, which samples $k$-expert subsets in the forward pass, and the backward pass uses gradients through each expert's exact marginal probability as a tractable surrogate for the true gradient. ProbMoE naturally generalizes to a dynamic-$k$ routing setting, where both training and inference constrain the routing cardinality to the same predefined range, allowing adaptive expert allocation per token. Across benchmarks and model backbones, ProbMoE Exact-$k$ achieves strong performance compared to competitive baselines, with improved expert utilization and routing diversity; ProbMoE Dynamic-$k$ achieves comparable performance with fewer activated experts.

We introduce the vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands and outsourcing options (VRP-SDO), in which a logistics service provider partitions customer requests into customers outsourced to a common carrier and customers committed to its fixed fleet. The latter induces a vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands (VRP-SD), solved dynamically. Demands are revealed upon visit; residual demand may be served by other vehicles or after restocking at the depot. Work beyond the regular shift incurs overtime costs, and the unit outsourcing cost decreases with the expected outsourced demand. The objective is to minimize expected travel, overtime, and outsourcing costs. We propose an iterative two-level methodology whose first level partitions customers into committed and outsourced subsets, while the second level estimates the expected VRP-SD routing cost. To avoid solving this problem from scratch at every iteration, we learn an offline routing policy that estimates costs almost instantly for any committed subset. An iterated local search establishes the first-level partitions. We formulate the second level as a Markov decision process and solve it with a deep Q-network whose state is represented by a graph attention network aggregating customer and vehicle information by relevance to the acting vehicle. Trained offline on instances with variable customer cardinality and locations, the policy applies to any daily customer realization; online fine-tuning improves the cost approximation. Experiments show that our policy reduces routing costs by 19.6% relative to a state-of-the-art method and by at least 29.6% over classical heuristics. Our overall algorithm saves 13.7% on average over the version without the attention-based representation and generates high-quality decisions within minutes, whereas benchmarks without an offline-trained estimator require over an hour.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance at scale. However, reinforcement learning (RL) on MoE-based LLMs often suffers from training instability. A root cause is router drift, i.e., expert activations can change drastically across model updates and differ between disaggregated rollout and training phases, causing large rollout--training mismatch and unstable importance sampling weights in PPO-style RL algorithms. Routing replay mitigates this issue by freezing the replay route within each reasoning trajectory, but it ignores how the router evolves under off-policy updates and thus causes router staleness. To address this limitation, we propose Predictive Routing Replay (PR2), which augments each router with a lightweight evolution predictor that learns to anticipate short-horizon router evolution. During the rollout phase, we use the predictive routing distribution to apply top-$k$ routing, enabling gradients to reach experts that are likely to become active after updates. During the training phase, we replay the resulting predicted route to retain consistency for stable importance estimation. Theoretical analysis and experiments support that PR2 reduces routing-induced mismatch, improves RL stability, and yields stronger performance across various reasoning benchmarks.