Agile Online Model Selection: Resolving Adaptation Lag via Safeguarded Large Learning Rates

This paper investigates non-stationary online learning using the metric of interval regret, which requires an online algorithm to perform well over every time interval. We propose the first online learning algorithm that achieves an interval regret bound scaling with gradient variation, a fundamental measure of the cumulative change in online function gradients, which relates to various problem-dependent quantities and is closely connected to stochastic optimization and other problems. Our method employs a simple and efficient two-layer online ensemble structure that achieves strong theoretical guarantees. Specifically, it enjoys a regret bound that simultaneously adapts to various problem-dependent quantities while also preserving the minimax-optimal rate in the worst case. Moreover, recognizing the challenge of hyperparameter tuning, we introduce a Lipschitz- and smoothness-agnostic variant that automatically adapts to these potentially unknown constants. This is primarily enabled by a novel Lipschitz-adaptive meta algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Beyond interval regret, our method also yields broader implications: it provides versatile bounds for interval dynamic regret, a stronger measure that competes with changing comparators over any interval, and yields the first piecewise characterization for stochastic extended adversarial optimization. Theoretical findings are validated by experiments.

Follow-the-regularized-leader framework has shown effectiveness and flexibility in online learning problems, where the choice of learning rates are known to be crucial. Recently, adaptive learning rates defined in terms of the arm-selection probabilities, obtained by solving convex optimization, have achieved improved best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) guarantees in various bandit problems. In contrast, BOBW guarantees for its computationally efficient alternative, follow-the-perturbed-leader (FTPL), remain relatively limited since its optimization-free nature ironically makes the design of adaptive, probability-dependent learning rates non-trivial. To address this challenge, we propose an adaptive learning rate for FTPL by introducing surrogate probability functions that can be computed only from the available quantities, without requiring the exact probabilities. Based on these learning rates with surrogate functions, we provide the BOBW guarantee for FTPL with Pareto perturbations for any shape parameter $α>1$, generalizing prior results restricted to specific choices of $α=2$. We further show the BOBW guarantees for FTPL with adaptive learning rates in the bandit problem with expert advices. Our approach preserves the computational simplicity of FTPL while enabling probability-dependent adaptivity, and the surrogate-based methodology may be of independent interest in other algorithmic frameworks beyond FTPL and learning rate designs.

Fine-tuning large language models on new data improves task performance but degrades capabilities learned during pretraining, a phenomenon known as catastrophic forgetting. Existing methods mitigate this by modifying the fine-tuning objective to suppress high-loss tokens or sequences, but these tokens are essential for learning new tasks, especially those with poor pretraining coverage. In such settings, hard tokens should still contribute to learning, so forgetting must be controlled without suppressing them. We identify a simple mechanism for doing so: per-step forgetting is bounded by the product of the learning rate and the square root of the current training loss. This suggests that high-loss batches are especially prone to inducing forgetting. Motivated by this observation, we introduce FINCH, a loss-adaptive learning-rate schedule that reduces the learning rate on high-loss batches and increases it as the model converges, while leaving the fine-tuning objective unchanged. Across knowledge acquisition, science, and low-resource language adaptation benchmarks, FINCH reduces forgetting by 93% on average while matching the task performance of standard fine-tuning. On Qwen3-4B knowledge acquisition, FINCH cuts TruthfulQA degradation by 5x and reverses HaluEval degradation, while better preserving confidence calibration. Overall, our results show that learning-rate schedules are an effective tool to shape model behavior during fine-tuning, beyond just target-task optimization.