Bridging Maximum Likelihood and Optimal Transport for Efficient Inference and Model Selection in Stochastic Block Models

Estimating the generative mechanism of large-scale networks is a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning. It requires the identification of the latent connectivity structure, which is in general an NP-hard combinatorial problem due to the absence of canonical node labels. We address this challenge by allowing for probabilistic couplings, thereby relaxing the assignment problem. Our estimation framework can be formulated as a semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein objective and provides a low-dimensional representation of the generative structure. We solve this via a block-coordinate conditional gradient algorithm. Despite the relaxation, the resulting solution is typically deterministic: in fact, we show that the optimality gap between the relaxed solution and the deterministic assignment vanishes at rate $O(1/n)$, where $n$ is the number of nodes. This allows for tractable recovery of the underlying model and enables rigorous statistical analysis: we establish consistency and minimax-optimal convergence rates for both stochastic block models and Holder-smooth graphons. Our implementation scales efficiently with $n$, as demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

We study exact community recovery in the two-community stochastic block model on $n$ vertices under limited and noisy access to network data. The learner may query a noisy neighborhood oracle that reveals each true neighbor of a queried vertex independently with fixed probability and never returns non-neighbors, subject to a finite query budget. We consider both oracle-only access and a combined model where the learner also observes a single subsampled copy of the underlying graph. For oracle-only access, balanced uniform querying gives a sharp non-adaptive benchmark: when each vertex is queried the same integer number of times, the observations reduce to an SBM with attenuated edge probabilities and the Abbe-Bandeira-Hall exact-recovery threshold applies. We show that this benchmark is not adaptively optimal: a two-stage adaptive strategy succeeds with $n+o(n)$ queries in a regime where balanced uniform querying requires $m n$ queries for some $m>1$. With an additional subsampled graph, we prove a sublinear-query adaptivity gap: balanced data-independent uniform querying with a sublinear budget does not improve over the subsampled graph alone, whereas adaptive querying can target a small set of uncertain vertices and achieve exact recovery. Thus adaptive data acquisition can strictly improve the information-theoretic limits of exact recovery.

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also been used for similar purposes. Prior work has shown that restricting the approximate posterior family via a mean-field approximation can lead the ELBO to underfit. In this paper, we show how ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple over-parameterized regression model can also produce overfitting, depending on the assumed rank of the covariance matrix in a Gaussian approximate posterior. Surprisingly, among only the underfit and overfit options, Bayesian model selection via the evidence itself sometimes prefers the overfit version, while the ELBO does not. Bayesian practitioners hoping to scale to large models should be cautious about how reduced-rank assumptions needed for tractability may impact the potential for model selection.