A Systematic Evaluation of Molecular Mixture Behavior Prediction

Accurate prediction of molecular properties underpins drug discovery and material design, yet even state-of-the-art models remain vulnerable to localized failure modes that aggregate metrics cannot detect. The places where molecular similarity should be most helpful are also places where standard evaluation can be most misleading. Property cliffs expose this gap: structurally similar molecules can still differ sharply in target property, so models with competitive overall performance may fail in high-risk local neighborhoods. To expose and mitigate this failure mode, CliffSplit, a cliff-aware evaluation protocol that constructs locally supported, cliff-exposed test cases, and CliffLoss, a model-agnostic train-only mitigation mechanism for cliff-sensitive errors, are introduced. Experiments on three QM9 targets and three MoleculeNet tasks across five backbones show that CliffSplit reveals at least 15% higher error in cliff-heavy QM9 regions, while CliffLoss reduces the cliff-to-smooth error gap by up to 30% on Lipophilicity and improves overall MAE by 9.7%. Together, these results turn molecular similarity failure from a descriptive anomaly into a benchmarked evaluation problem for molecular machine learning. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Cliff_Loss.

Molecular property prediction integrates quantum chemistry, cheminformatics, and deep learning to connect molecular structure with physicochemical and biological behavior. This survey traces four complementary paradigms, including Quantum, Descriptor Machine Learning, Geometric Deep Learning, and Foundation Models, and outlines a unified taxonomy linking molecular representations, model architectures, and interdisciplinary applications. Benchmark analyses integrate evidence from both widely used datasets and datasets reflecting industry perspectives, encompassing quantum, physicochemical, physiological, and biophysical domains. The survey examines current standards in data curation, splitting strategies, and evaluation protocols, highlighting challenges including inconsistent stereochemistry, heterogeneous assay sources, and reproducibility limitations under random or poorly defined splits. These observations motivate the modernization of benchmark design toward more transparent, time- and scaffold-aware methodologies. We further propose three forward-looking directions: (i) physics-aware learning embedding quantum consistency, (ii) uncertainty-calibrated foundation models for trustworthy inference, and (iii) realistic multimodal benchmark ecosystems integrating computational and experimental data. Repository: https://github.com/Zongru-Li/Survey-and-Benchmarks-of-DL-for-Molecular-Property-Prediction-in-the-Foundation-Model-Era.

Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials play a fundamental role in computational chemistry and materials science, enabling applications from molecular dynamics simulations to drug design and materials discovery. While recent approaches can estimate inter-atomic forces with high precision, it remains unclear to what extent they can generalise to previously unseen molecules. Do they learn the compositional structure of chemistry, capturing how molecular fragments and their combinations determine properties, or do they primarily learn to interpolate patterns that are specific to the training examples? To address this question, we propose a benchmark consisting of four tasks that require some form of compositional generalisation. In each task, models are tested on molecules that were unseen during training, but the training data is chosen such that generalisation to the test examples should be feasible for models that learn the underlying physical principles. Our empirical analysis shows that the considered tasks are highly challenging for state-of-the-art models, with errors on out-of-distribution examples often an order of magnitude higher than on in-distribution examples, even when using foundation models that have been pre-trained on millions of molecules.