Wasserstein Contraction of Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference

Otto's Wasserstein gradient flow of the inclusive (forward) Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence offers a principled framework for analyzing statistical inference algorithms, yet algorithms targeting the exclusive (reverse) KL divergence are rarely studied with such tools. We establish a unified gradient-flow and PDF framework for inclusive KL inference. We show that maximum mean discrepancy minimization can be viewed as inclusive KL inference with an approximate gradient estimator, and we develop the Fisher--Rao and Wasserstein--Fisher--Rao gradient flows that directly target the inclusive KL divergence. Restricting these flows to the manifold of Gaussian distributions yields explicit gradient-flow ODEs, providing a foundation for Gaussian variational inference. Building on this viewpoint, we further introduce a local-estimator Wasserstein gradient flow whose velocity is obtained by local nonparametric regression, free of density-ratio evaluation or kernel gradients, improving the algorithmic performance over the MMD-based particle method.

We study the convergence of Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) gradient flows for sampling from probability distributions known up to a normalisation constant. By combining Wasserstein transport with Fisher-Rao birth-death dynamics, WFR flows balance exploration and selection. These flows have been recognised as a promising mechanism to accelerate convergence beyond Langevin dynamics. We show that for a class of strongly log-concave target distributions satisfying additional curvature conditions, WFR flows preserve strong log-concavity, in contrast to Wasserstein flows which enjoy this property only in the Gaussian setting. Exploiting this result, we derive explicit non-asymptotic convergence rates for the symmetrised Kullback-Leibler divergence, without requiring a warm-start as required in current estimates. In particular, we show that the convergence rate decomposes additively into Wasserstein and Fisher-Rao contributions, thereby confirming a recent conjecture within this setting. These results provide refined convergence guarantees and further develop the theoretical foundations of WFR gradient flows for sampling and Bayesian inference.

Variational inference (VI) is a central tool in modern machine learning, used to approximate an intractable target density by optimising over a tractable family of distributions. As the variational family cannot typically represent the target exactly, guarantees on the quality of the resulting approximation are crucial for understanding which of its properties VI can faithfully capture. Recent work has identified instances in which symmetries of the target and the variational family enable the recovery of certain statistics, even under model misspecification. However, these guarantees are inherently problem-specific and offer little insight into the fundamental mechanism by which symmetry forces statistic recovery. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by developing a general theory of symmetry-induced statistic recovery in variational inference. First, we characterise when variational minimisers inherit the symmetries of the target and establish conditions under which these pin down identifiable statistics. Second, we unify existing results by showing that previously known statistic recovery guarantees in location-scale families arise as special cases of our theory. Third, we apply our framework to distributions on the sphere to obtain novel guarantees for directional statistics in von Mises-Fisher families. Together, these results provide a modular blueprint for deriving new recovery guarantees for VI in a broad range of symmetry settings.