Towards Effective Long-Video Event Prediction via Multi-Level Event Semantics Mining

Video Large Language Models (Video LLMs) have made significant advancements in various video understanding tasks. However, long-video scenarios remain challenging due to the tension between limited visual token budgets and the need to capture multiple key events. Existing approaches typically process long videos in two stages, i.e., i) select keyframes and ii) perform detailed perception, which exhibit limitations: they lack a modular mechanism for adaptive capacity allocation and self-correction, resulting in unreliable modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose MoD-VLLM, a novel Modularized Dynamic-Granularity Video LLM framework for multi-event long video understanding, which unifies temporal grounding and semantic understanding iteratively and self-reflectively. Specifically, we propose a Positive-Negative Video Segments Grounding module and a Modularized Dynamic-Granularity Reflection module, which form a closed loop to progressively localize the question-related video segments. The grounding module instructs a Video LLM to distinguish relevant from irrelevant video segments based on the video question. The reflection module employs a modularized scheduler that dynamically selects fine-grained encoding for relevant positive segments to capture detailed perception and coarse-grained encoding for negative segments to maintain global context. We further propose a dynamic-granularity reinforcement learning strategy, allowing MoD-VLLM to learn optimal grounding policies and dynamic granularity visual representation jointly. Moreover, we propose MEventBench, a challenging Multi-Event Long Video Benchmark for complex long video reasoning. Extensive experiments on several long video understanding benchmarks and our MEventBench demonstrate that MoD-VLLM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) often suffer from hallucinations in long video understanding (LVU), primarily due to the imbalance between textual and visual tokens. Observing that MLLMs handle short visual inputs well, recent LVU works alleviate hallucinations by automatically parsing the vast visual data into manageable segments that can be effectively processed by MLLMs. SFT-based tool-calling methods can serve this purpose, but they typically require vast amounts of fine-grained, high-quality data and suffer from constrained tool-calling trajectories. We propose a novel VideoTIR that leverages Reinforcement Learning (RL) to encourage proper usage of comprehensive multi-level toolkits for efficient long video understanding. VideoTIR explores both Zero-RL and SFT cold-starting to enable MLLMs to retrieve and focus on meaningful video segments/images/regions, enhancing long video understanding both accurately and efficiently. To reduce redundant tool-calling, we propose Toolkit Action Grouped Policy Optimization (TAGPO), which enhances the efficiency of the calling process through stepwise reward assignment and reuse of failed rollouts. Additionally, we develop a sandbox-based trajectory synthesis framework to generate high-quality trajectories data. Extensive experiments on three long-video QA benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method.