We propose a unified framework for addressing three key challenges of distribution shift: (1) estimating a model's performance on an unlabeled target domain, (2) explaining the shift by identifying the features responsible, and (3) improving the target domain performance. Our method, Entropic Projection Alignment (EPA), aligns the source distribution to the target by matching carefully selected moments while simultaneously minimising the KL divergence from the source. This formulation yields a unique closed-form solution for importance weights, achieving robustness through implicit variance control. Drawing on domain adaptation theory, we establish that moment matching is sufficient for reliable estimation and adaptation, avoiding the need for full density ratio recovery. Extensive experiments, together with strong theoretical guarantees, demonstrate that EPA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while offering substantial computational efficiency.
Performance estimation under distribution shift aims to predict how a model behaves on an unlabeled test set whose distribution differs from the training data, a scenario that requires reliable indicators that can faithfully reflect model behavior without ground-truth labels. Existing approaches rely solely on the outputs of the given model whose biases are amplified once the distribution shifts, weakening the correlation with the true performance. Motivated by this limitation, we propose Fused Reference Alignment Prediction (FRAP), which leverages the complementary strengths of an external foundation model and the base model to construct a more reliable surrogate of the ground-truth labels. FRAP aligns the prediction distribution of the foundation model with that of the base model by applying temperature-scaled calibration that minimizes their divergence. The aligned predictions are fused through confidence-based weighting into a refined reference distribution that integrates robustness from the foundation model and domain-specific expertise from the base model, and performance estimation is obtained by measuring how closely the base model predictions agree with this reference. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and architectures show that FRAP provides consistent and substantial improvements over representative performance-estimation methods under distribution shift.
Domain adaptation aims to mitigate performance degradation caused by distribution shifts between a labeled source domain and an unlabeled or sparsely labeled target domain. Most existing approaches estimate domain discrepancy either in feature space or in prediction space. However, these single-perspective strategies overlook a critical problem under domain shift: the reliability of the signals used for alignment. In practice, both learned representations and semantic predictions may become unreliable, and treating all target samples equally can lead to misleading alignment and suboptimal transfer. We introduce trust-aware domain adaptation, a principled framework that models domain discrepancy through the reliability of feature and prediction signals. Central to our approach is the Joint Feature-Prediction Discrepancy (JFPD), a unified formulation that jointly captures representation divergence and prediction divergence while weighting their contributions by sample-specific trust. Trust is quantified via two complementary mechanisms: uncertainty-aware trust, derived from prediction entropy to suppress unreliable predictions, and semantic-alignment trust, computed from prototype similarity in feature space to emphasize well-aligned representations. By prioritizing confident and semantically consistent samples while down-weighting noisy or ambiguous ones, JFPD provides a reliability-aware estimate of domain discrepancy. We further integrate JFPD into a training objective that guides adaptation toward trustworthy regions of the target domain. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves superior adaptation performance and yields discrepancy estimates that correlate with target-domain error. This work addresses, for the first time, the importance of modeling trust in the interaction between features and predictions for domain adaptation.
A central problem in unsupervised domain adaptation is determining what to transfer from labeled source domains to an unlabeled target domain. To handle high-dimensional observations (e.g., images), a line of approaches use deep learning to learn latent representations of the observations, which facilitate knowledge transfer in the latent space. However, existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions to establish identifiability of the joint distribution in the target domain, such as independent latent variables or invariant label distributions, limiting their real-world applicability. In this work, we propose a general domain adaptation framework that learns compact latent representations to capture distribution shifts relative to the prediction task and address the fundamental question of what representations should be learned and transferred. Notably, we first demonstrate that learning representations based on all the predictive information, i.e., the label's Markov blanket in terms of the learned representations, is often underspecified in general settings. Instead, we show that, interestingly, general domain adaptation can be achieved by partitioning the representations of Markov blanket into those of the label's parents, children, and spouses. Moreover, its identifiability guarantee can be established. Building on these theoretical insights, we develop a practical, nonparametric approach for domain adaptation in a general setting, which can handle different types of distribution shifts.