Don't Gamble, GAMBLe: An Analytical Framework for AI-Driven Research Systems

Recent systems for optimizing prompts, programs, and ML workflows typically rely on explicit outer-loop controllers such as evolutionary search, bandits, or textual-gradient methods. We ask a fundamentally different question: how much of this search policy can be internalized by a single tool-using agent? We present ReASearch, a unified framework for reasoning-driven optimization in which the agent autonomously decides what to evaluate, how to diagnose failures, which edits to make, and when to verify or restart. Rather than serving only as a proposal generator guided by hand-designed heuristics, the agent actively analyzes outcomes, allocates budget, and refines its strategy over long horizons through persistent memory. With a shared agent loop and domain-specific tools, ReASearch instantiates the exact same scaffold to optimize prompts, programs, and ML workflows. Across 14 diverse tasks, it is competitive with and mostly better than specialized optimization systems, achieving gains of 2% to 40% over strong domain-specific baselines, and in some cases discovering solutions that improve on prior human best-known results. Crucially, we observe that complex search behaviors, which are typically implemented by explicit controllers, emerge naturally from the agent's reasoning process.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly operate as Deep Research (DR) Agents capable of autonomous investigation and information synthesis, reliable evaluation of their task performance has become a critical bottleneck. Current benchmarks predominantly rely on static datasets, which suffer from several limitations: limited task generality, temporal misalignment, and data contamination. To address these, we introduce DR-Arena, a fully automated evaluation framework that pushes DR agents to their capability limits through dynamic investigation. DR-Arena constructs real-time Information Trees from fresh web trends to ensure the evaluation rubric is synchronized with the live world state, and employs an automated Examiner to generate structured tasks testing two orthogonal capabilities: Deep reasoning and Wide coverage. DR-Arena further adopts Adaptive Evolvement Loop, a state-machine controller that dynamically escalates task complexity based on real-time performance, demanding deeper deduction or wider aggregation until a decisive capability boundary emerges. Experiments with six advanced DR agents demonstrate that DR-Arena achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.94 with the LMSYS Search Arena leaderboard. This represents the state-of-the-art alignment with human preferences without any manual efforts, validating DR-Arena as a reliable alternative for costly human adjudication.

Autonomous discovery systems such as OpenEvolve and TTT-Discover are often used as general-purpose harnesses. However, in practice these are composite systems combining several design choices about archives, parent selection, exploration, and budget allocation into a single recipe. Because discovery runs are expensive and inherently stochastic, existing harnesses are often compared using too few independent trials to distinguish key methodological improvements from run-to-run variance. We systematically decompose OpenEvolve-style evolutionary search and the TTT-Discover search harness into its constituent components and systematically evaluate 30 budget-matched harnesses across 12 model-problem pairs using more than 3.1 million LLM rollouts and repeated-trial statistical analysis. Our results show that discovery harnesses have a generalization problem: No fixed harness is reliably superior across the evaluated model-problem pairs, and variants of OpenEvolve generally underperform simpler alternatives. Thus, harness choice is better viewed as a hyperparameter rather than as a universal recipe, and should be tailored to the specific problem and underlying model. We also find that early discovery progress predicts final performance, and use this property to present a budget-matched adaptive-allocation experiment that starts multiple harnesses, prunes weak partial runs, and reallocates compute to stronger survivors, outperforming both commitment to a randomly sampled fixed harness and a non-adaptive harness ensemble. Together, these results motivate shifting from fixed harness selection to online adaptation guided by early performance. We release all run pools including baseline null distributions for every model-problem pair as reusable statistical infrastructure against for future harness proposals.