Link Prediction or Perdition: the Seeds of Instability in Knowledge Graph Embeddings

Evaluating Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) models remains challenging because standard assessment relies on isolated rank-based metrics such as MRR, Hits$@$k, and Mean Rank, which often produce conflicting model orderings across datasets. A model that leads on MRR may trail on Hits@1, and strong performance on one dataset may not generalize to another. This fragmentation hinders comparison, enables selective reporting, and obscures real progress. We reframe KGC evaluation as a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem and present a meta-analysis of seven aggregators across five tests: consistency, cross-dataset stability, metric independence, robustness under noise, and generalizability. Each test is averaged over leave-one-model-out (LOMO) and leave-one-group-out (LOGO) removals so that reliability reflects aggregator behavior across diverse model subsets. Across tail $(h,r,?)$ and relation $(h,?,t)$ prediction, Pareto-optimal analysis identifies Z-score as the most balanced aggregator, which ranks DualE highest for tail prediction and FMS (Flow-Modulated Scoring) highest for relation prediction. A test-sensitivity analysis using the same removals shows that consistency and stability are largely removal-invariant, while generalizability and independence are the most sensitive. The framework resolves evaluation inconsistencies and offers evidence-based guidance for aggregator selection and model benchmarking in KGC.

Knowledge graph completion (KGC) aims to predict missing facts from an observed knowledge graph (KG), playing a crucial role in a wide range of real-world applications such as drug discovery, recommender systems, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Although numerous KGC models have been proposed, the evaluation of KGC remains underexplored, despite its critical role in reliably assessing model performance and selecting appropriate models for real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce two important perspectives for KGC evaluation that are overlooked by existing evaluation metrics, (P1) predictive sharpness and (P2) popularity-bias robustness. To address both perspectives, we propose a generalized evaluation framework, PROBE, which consists of a rank transformer (RT) that estimates the score of each prediction based on a desired level of predictive sharpness and a rank aggregator (RA) that determines the final evaluation score by aggregating all prediction scores according to a desired level of popularity-bias robustness. We theoretically analyze PROBE by defining six key properties for reliable KGC evaluation and prove that PROBE satisfies all the properties, while existing metrics fail to satisfy some. In particular, due to the open-world nature of KGs, an evaluation metric should preserve the relative performance of KGC models even when only incomplete facts are observed. We show that PROBE better maintains such consistency, providing a more reliable estimate of intrinsic model performance than existing metrics. Extensive experiments with six KGC models on six real-world KGs reveal that existing metrics may over- or under-estimate model performance depending on different evaluation perspectives, whereas PROBE enables a more comprehensive, flexible, and consistent evaluation of KGC models.

Link prediction in knowledge graphs fundamentally depends on the quality of learned embeddings for entities and relations. However, most existing methods derive these embeddings by aggregating only the local neighborhood of each entity, neglecting the global structure of the knowledge graph. This limited view prevents models from capturing higher-level structural patterns that are essential for accurate and generalizable link prediction. To address these limitations, we introduce Model Graph Inductive Learning (\textbf{MGIL}), a framework that constructs a model graph by clustering entities based on the similarity of their incoming and outgoing relational structures or their entity types. A GNN is then applied to this model graph to produce embeddings that capture the global view of the knowledge graph. These embeddings subsequently serve as high-quality initial features %embeddings for the original knowledge graph, replacing random initialization and leading to more stable and expressive representations. Extensive experiments on standard and recently proposed inductive benchmarks demonstrate that MGIL achieves state-of-the-art or highly competitive performance in inductive link prediction, highlighting its effectiveness across diverse graph settings.