Retrieval effectiveness varies substantially across queries, making it important to estimate ranking quality before relevance judgments are available. Query performance prediction (QPP) addresses this need, but most existing methods rely on external predictors after retrieval or reranking. In this paper, we study \textit{reranker-internal QPP}: can an LLM reranker estimate the quality of the ranking it has just produced? We investigate both training-free and training-based approaches. For training-free estimation, we examine metric-specific self-consistency across sampled rankings and verbalized confidence produced directly by the reranker. Experiments on TREC Deep Learning 2019--2022 with four LLMs show that self-consistency is competitive with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approach and better calibrated in almost all settings, while direct verbalized confidence is severely overconfident. To improve verbalized confidence, we propose two supervised methods, Verb-Num and Verb-List, which enable LLM rerankers to produce calibrated ranking-quality estimates with only a few additional output tokens.
With PRECISE, we extended Prediction-Powered Inference to produce bias-corrected estimates of ranking evaluation metrics by combining a small human-labeled set with a large LLM-judged set. PPI is provably unbiased regardless of the LLM judge's error profile. We make it applicable to hierarchical metrics like Precision@K, where annotations are per-document but the metric is per-query, by reducing the output-space computation from O(2^|C|) to O(2^K). On the ESCI benchmark, augmenting 30 human annotations with Claude 3 Sonnet judgments reduces the standard error of Precision@4 estimates from 4.45 to 3.50 (a 21% relative reduction). In a production system, our framework correctly identified the best of three system variants from 100 human labels and 2 hours of domain-expert annotation; A/B testing confirmed this ranking with +407 bps in daily sales.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as rerankers in information retrieval, yet their ranking behavior can be steered by small, natural-sounding prompts. To expose this vulnerability, we present Rank Anything First (RAF), a two-stage token optimization method that crafts concise textual perturbations to consistently promote a target item in LLM-generated rankings while remaining hard to detect. Stage 1 uses Greedy Coordinate Gradient to shortlist candidate tokens at the current position by combining the gradient of the rank-target with a readability score; Stage 2 evaluates those candidates under exact ranking and readability losses using an entropy-based dynamic weighting scheme, and selects a token via temperature-controlled sampling. RAF generates ranking-promoting prompts token-by-token, guided by dual objectives: maximizing ranking effectiveness and preserving linguistic naturalness. Experiments across multiple LLMs show that RAF significantly boosts the rank of target items using naturalistic language, with greater robustness than existing methods in both promoting target items and maintaining naturalness. These findings underscore a critical security implication: LLM-based reranking is inherently susceptible to adversarial manipulation, raising new challenges for the trustworthiness and robustness of modern retrieval systems. Our code is available at: https://github.com/glad-lab/RAF.
Standard reranking evaluations study how a reranker orders candidates returned by an upstream retriever. This setup couples ranking behavior with retrieval quality, so differences in output cannot be attributed to the ranking policy alone. We introduce a controlled diagnostic for reranking that uses Multi-News clusters as fixed evidence pools. We limit each pool to eight documents and pass identical inputs to all rankers. Within this setup, BM25 and MMR serve as interpretable reference points for lexical matching and diversity optimization. Across 345 clusters, we find that redundancy patterns vary by model: one LLM implicitly diversifies at larger selection budgets, while another increases redundancy. In contrast, LLMs underperform on lexical coverage at small selection budgets. As a result, LLM rankings diverge substantially from both baselines rather than consistently approximating either strategy. By reducing retrieval variance through fixed pools, we interpret these differences more directly as differences in ranking policy. This diagnostic is model agnostic and can be applied to any ranker, including open source systems and proprietary APIs. Our code and processed data for both the Multi-News diagnostic and the complementary TREC-DL evaluation are publicly available at https://github.com/barisarat/llm_reranker_multinews.git.