ChessMimic: Per-Rating Transformer Models for Human Move, Clock, and Outcome Prediction in Online Blitz Chess

Otter is a 15.3M-parameter human chess AI that predicts human move selection by modeling play as a time-aware, sequential process rather than treating each position in isolation. It combines two conditioning signals: (1) a move history encoder that conditions predictions on the last 20 moves, capturing opening preferences, positional drift, and intra-game behavioral tendencies; and (2) a time control module that modulates predictions based on clock pressure. Otter is trained on 6.1 billion positions from 117 million Lichess rapid games over 30 days on a single T4 GPU. Otter achieves 55.23% top-1 and 90.95% top-5 move-prediction accuracy, surpassing the prior state-of-the-art human chess model, Maia 2, with far fewer parameters and less training data. Across 11 Elo brackets (<1100 to >=2000), accuracy peaks at 57.38% in the 1900-1999 bracket. These results show that modeling chess as a time-aware, sequential activity yields more human-accurate move prediction than position-only approaches, using a smaller model. Code, trained models, and complete training logs are publicly released.

World models require state tracking, which is the ability to maintain a correct latent state across action sequences. Existing benchmarks are often synthetic or language-based, limiting their value as tests of structured state updates in realistic domains. We introduce Chess-World-Model, a large-scale state-tracking benchmark built from 10 million real chess games, where models predict the exact board state reached after a sequence of legal moves. Alongside a held-out real-game split, we include an out-of-distribution split from uniformly random legal play, which tests whether models learn the transition rules rather than shortcuts from common human positions. Prior theoretical and empirical work has shown that Transformers struggle to state-track, while input-dependent linear RNNs require expressive state-transition matrices to do so. We therefore benchmark a causal Transformer, block-diagonal SLiCE, Mamba-3, and Gated DeltaNet with negative eigenvalues under a matched interface and training protocol. The recurrent models strongly outperform the Transformer at 3 and 8 million parameters. Real-game performance saturates above 18 million parameters, but the random-uniform split remains discriminative up to 40 million, exposing failures otherwise hidden by scale. Additionally, ablations show that less expressive state-transition mechanisms reduce performance on the out-of-distribution split for all three recurrent models. Together, these results establish Chess-World-Model as a practical large-scale benchmark for state tracking that exposes failures model scale would otherwise conceal.

Chess has long served as a canonical testbed for artificial intelligence, but modeling approaches for its central tasks have diverged. Maximizing playing strength, predicting human play, and enabling interpretability are typically solved with disparate architectures, and these designs are often misaligned with the geometry of the domain. This raises the natural question of whether these objectives require separate modeling paradigms, or if there exists a single architecture that supports them simultaneously. We introduce Chessformer, a unified architecture that advances the state of the art on all three central goals in chess modeling. Chessformer is an encoder-only transformer that represents board squares as tokens, augments self-attention with a novel dynamic positional encoding called Geometric Attention Bias (GAB) that adapts to domain-specific geometry, and predicts actions with an attention-based source-destination policy head. We evaluate Chessformer on each front. First, we develop \maiathree, a family of models for human move prediction that reaches 57.1% move-matching accuracy, significantly surpassing the previous state of the art with fewer than a quarter of the parameters. Second, we integrate Chessformer into Leela Chess Zero, a leading open-source engine, adding over 100 Elo of playing strength and resulting in tournament victories over Stockfish in major computer chess competitions. Third, we show that Chessformer's square-token design makes attention patterns and activations directly attributable to board squares, enabling granular interpretability analyses that prior architectures do not naturally support. More broadly, our results demonstrate that aligning a model's tokenization, positional encoding, and output design with the underlying structure of a domain can yield simultaneous gains in performance, human compatibility, and interpretability.