Towards Graph Foundation Models for Dynamics in Complex Networked Systems: Lessons from Super-Spreader Identification in Multilayer Networks

Dynamic graphs are ubiquitous in real-world systems, and building generalizable dynamic Graph Foundation Models has become a frontier in graph learning. However, dynamic graphs from different domains pose fundamental challenges to unified modeling, as their semantic and temporal patterns are inherently inconsistent, making the multi-domain pre-training difficult. Consequently, the widely used "pretrain-then-finetune" paradigm often suffers from severe negative knowledge transfer. To the best of our knowledge, there exists no multi-domain dynamic GFM. In this work, we propose DyGFM, a Dynamic Graph Foundation Model over multiple domains based on decoupled and divergence-conditioned prompting. To disentangle transferable semantics from the domain-specific dynamics, we introduce a dual-branch pre-training strategy with semantic-temporal decoupling. To alleviate negative transfer during domain adaptation, we further develop a cross-domain routing mechanism with divergence-aware expert selection. To enable efficient downstream fine-tuning, we design a divergence-conditioned prompt generator that injects lightweight, learnable graph prompts tailored to semantic and temporal traits. Extensive experiments on continuous dynamic graph benchmarks demonstrate that DyGFM consistently outperforms 12 state-of-the-art baselines on both node classification and link prediction tasks, achieving superior effectiveness and efficiency.

Traditional network analysis focuses on single-layer networks, real-world systems often form multilayer networks with multiple relationship types. However, existing methods typically fail to capture complex inter-layer dependencies by treating layers independently or aggregating them. To address this, we propose T-GINEE (Tensor-Based Generalized Multilayer-graph Estimating Equation), a statistical regularization framework combining tensor-based generalized estimating equations with task-specific loss to model cross-network correlations explicitly. Key innovations include: (1) CP tensor decomposition capturing structural dependencies via shared latent factors; (2) a generalized estimating equation framework modeling inter-layer correlations through working covariance matrices; and (3) a flexible link function accommodating characteristics like sparsity. Our theoretical analysis establishes consistency and asymptotic normality under mild conditions. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate T-GINEE's effectiveness for multilayer network analysis.

Graph foundation models face several fundamental challenges including transferability across diverse domains and data scarcity, which calls into question the very feasibility of creating such models. However, despite similar challenges, the tabular domain has recently witnessed the emergence of the first successful foundation models such as TabPFN. These models are based on the prior-data fitted networks (PFN) framework, in which models are pretrained on carefully designed synthetic datasets to make predictions in an in-context learning setting. Recently, G2T-FM, a framework that converts graph node-level tasks into tabular tasks, has made the first step towards adopting PFNs for graphs, yet it is limited to hand-crafted features and was never pretrained on graph data. In this work, we make the next step by proposing GraphPFN, a PFN-based model designed and pretrained specifically for graph node-level tasks. Following the PFN framework, we first design a prior distribution of synthetic attributed graphs by using a novel combination of multi-level stochastic block models and a preferential attachment process for structure generation and graph-aware structured causal models for attribute generation. Then, we augment the tabular foundation model LimiX with attention-based graph neighborhood aggregation layers and train it on millions of synthetic graphs sampled from our prior. On diverse real-world graph datasets with node-level tasks, GraphPFN achieves state-of-the-art results in both in-context learning and finetuning regimes, outperforming G2T-FM, prior GFMs, and task-specific GNNs trained from scratch. More broadly, GraphPFN shows the potential of PFN-based models for building graph foundation models.