Analyzing the Correlation Between Hallucinations and Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models

Large language models can hallucinate even when the knowledge required for a correct answer is already available. We study this failure through a latent-key view of inference, where answer selection depends on competition among associations acquired during pretraining. We show that model predictions can be highly sensitive to individual query keywords, that these influential keywords exhibit entity-specific binding, and that their effects are systematically shaped by pretraining frequency. Multiple bindings can also compete and exhibit higher-order interactions within the same query. Based on this mechanism, we introduce a two-stage keyword-perturbation method for hallucination detection. By removing influential keywords and measuring how the model reorganizes its prediction, the method distinguishes errors caused by misleading key associations from correct decisions supported by diagnostic evidence. Across multiple models and benchmarks, perturbation provides a strong and transferable detection signal, reaching $.910$ AUROC on probe-known ScientistQA. Finally, we extend the same probabilistic framework to four hallucination regimes: knowledge deficit, wrong knowledge, context distraction, and unstable inference. Their operational distributions across benchmarks provide diagnostic context for why different detector families succeed in different settings.

Despite substantial advances, large language models (LLMs) continue to exhibit hallucinations, generating plausible yet incorrect responses. In this paper, we highlight a critical yet previously underexplored class of hallucinations driven by spurious correlations -- superficial but statistically prominent associations between features (e.g., surnames) and attributes (e.g., nationality) present in the training data. We demonstrate that these spurious correlations induce hallucinations that are confidently generated, immune to model scaling, evade current detection methods, and persist even after refusal fine-tuning. Through systematically controlled synthetic experiments and empirical evaluations on state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary LLMs (including GPT-5), we show that existing hallucination detection methods, such as confidence-based filtering and inner-state probing, fundamentally fail in the presence of spurious correlations. Our theoretical analysis further elucidates why these statistical biases intrinsically undermine confidence-based detection techniques. Our findings thus emphasize the urgent need for new approaches explicitly designed to address hallucinations caused by spurious correlations.

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs), defined as the generation of factually incorrect or unsupported content, remains a critical barrier to reliable deployment. We present BEACON (Behavioral Entropy Aggregation for Cross-model hallucination detectiON), a black-box hallucination detection framework that operates purely on model outputs without requiring access to internal representations or external knowledge bases. BEACON extracts a 31-dimensional feature vector from structured multi-pass generation, integrating NLI-based semantic entropy, embedding geometry, chain-of-thought consistency, and paraphrase stability signals. A gradient-boosted classifier trained on 7,617 labeled examples across seven benchmarks achieves 0.8123 +/- 0.0102 AUROC (95% CI: 0.7632-0.8251), outperforming standalone semantic entropy (+0.2298) and SelfCheckGPT-style consistency baselines (+0.2457). Feature importance analysis shows that hallucination is inherently multi-dimensional, requiring combined uncertainty signals. An efficient 5-call variant achieves 0.7795 AUROC, enabling practical deployment across black-box LLM APIs.