Density Ridge Selective Prediction for LLM and VLM Hallucination Detection under Calibration Label Scarcity

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate factually incorrect outputs, commonly termed hallucinations, that undermine trust and limit deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing hallucination detection methods typically require multiple forward passes, or access to model internals. In this work, we provide theoretical background and empirical evidence that the distribution of token-level entropies, beyond the mean captured by perplexity or length-normalised entropy, serves as a fingerprint of hallucination, with distributional shape and tail behaviour carrying independent signal. We formalize hallucination detection as a statistical hypothesis test and propose the Calibrated Entropy Score (CES), a lightweight algorithm requiring only a single forward pass and black-box access to token logits. CES combines the mean signal with the maximum signal of the generated entropy through a calibrated reference CDF, producing scores that are directly comparable across models and tasks. We establish finite-sample calibration guarantees via a novel random-length Dvoretzky--Kiefer--Wolfowitz inequality, and also prove that CES detects hallucinations with probability converging to one exponentially fast in the generation length. Across eight QA benchmarks and ten generator models spanning open-source and API access models, CES achieves the highest detection performance among all single-pass black-box methods while providing formal error guarantees that existing heuristics lack. Remarkably, CES is statistically indistinguishable from multi-sample methods that require far greater computational cost, closing the gap between lightweight and expensive detection and making it suitable for real-time, large-scale deployment.

Hallucinations remain a major obstacle for large language models (LLMs), especially in safety-critical domains. We present HALT (Hallucination Assessment via Log-probs as Time series), a lightweight hallucination detector that leverages only the top-20 token log-probabilities from LLM generations as a time series. HALT uses a gated recurrent unit model combined with entropy-based features to learn model calibration bias, providing an extremely efficient alternative to large encoders. Unlike white-box approaches, HALT does not require access to hidden states or attention maps, relying only on output log-probabilities. Unlike black-box approaches, it operates on log-probs rather than surface-form text, which enables stronger domain generalization and compatibility with proprietary LLMs without requiring access to internal weights. To benchmark performance, we introduce HUB (Hallucination detection Unified Benchmark), which consolidates prior datasets into ten capabilities covering both reasoning tasks (Algorithmic, Commonsense, Mathematical, Symbolic, Code Generation) and general purpose skills (Chat, Data-to-Text, Question Answering, Summarization, World Knowledge). While being 30x smaller, HALT outperforms Lettuce, a fine-tuned modernBERT-base encoder, achieving a 60x speedup gain on HUB. HALT and HUB together establish an effective framework for hallucination detection across diverse LLM capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs) hallucinate with confidence: their outputs can be fluent, authoritative, and simply wrong. In medical, legal, and scientific applications this failure causes direct harm, and detecting it from internal model states offers a path to safer deployment. A growing body of work reports that this problem is increasingly tractable, with recent methods achieving high detection performance on widely used benchmarks. We show, however, that much of this apparent progress does not survive scrutiny. Four of the six corpora embed the ground-truth answer directly in the input prompt. A naïve text-similarity baseline we call \textsc{TxTemb} exploits this to achieve near-perfect detection scores without any access to model internals. To measure what genuine detection capability remains once these artifacts are controlled, we conduct a large-scale evaluation spanning twenty-two detection methods, twelve open-source models spanning six architectural families, and six corpora. We further introduce \textbf{DRIFT}, a supervised probe over inter-layer hidden-state transitions, as a point of comparison for live-generation detection. Our findings suggest that the field's reported progress on hallucination detection is substantially explained by benchmark construction artifacts in widely used corpora, and that the majority of established baselines perform near chance under controlled conditions; the consistent exceptions are SAPLMA and DRIFT, both supervised probes on upper-layer hidden states.