Quickest Detection of Hallucination Onset: Delay Bounds and Learned CUSUM Statistics

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate factually incorrect outputs, commonly termed hallucinations, that undermine trust and limit deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing hallucination detection methods typically require multiple forward passes, or access to model internals. In this work, we provide theoretical background and empirical evidence that the distribution of token-level entropies, beyond the mean captured by perplexity or length-normalised entropy, serves as a fingerprint of hallucination, with distributional shape and tail behaviour carrying independent signal. We formalize hallucination detection as a statistical hypothesis test and propose the Calibrated Entropy Score (CES), a lightweight algorithm requiring only a single forward pass and black-box access to token logits. CES combines the mean signal with the maximum signal of the generated entropy through a calibrated reference CDF, producing scores that are directly comparable across models and tasks. We establish finite-sample calibration guarantees via a novel random-length Dvoretzky--Kiefer--Wolfowitz inequality, and also prove that CES detects hallucinations with probability converging to one exponentially fast in the generation length. Across eight QA benchmarks and ten generator models spanning open-source and API access models, CES achieves the highest detection performance among all single-pass black-box methods while providing formal error guarantees that existing heuristics lack. Remarkably, CES is statistically indistinguishable from multi-sample methods that require far greater computational cost, closing the gap between lightweight and expensive detection and making it suitable for real-time, large-scale deployment.

Large Language Models can produce fluent text that is false, unsupported by the available evidence, or inconsistent with information that appears to be internally represented by the model. We study hallucination detection from the geometry of hidden activations and introduce the D-Score, a simple spectral statistic computed from a single forward pass. For a fixed model, layer, and tolerance parameter, the D-Score counts how many singular directions of the hidden activation matrix have singular values that remain close to the leading one. We use this quantity as a hallucination score, classifying an input text as hallucinated when its D-Score is larger than a pre-defined quantity. The motivation is that, when a model processes a text that conflicts with information available in its own internal state, the hidden representation may encode both the asserted content and some form of counter-evidence, uncertainty, correction, or lack of support; this can make the hidden trajectory spread across additional singular directions. We formalize this intuition through a lightweight spectral argument and evaluate the resulting detector on FAVA-Annotation and RAGTruth. The experiments indicate that the D-Score is a strong hidden-state signal for hallucination detection, while requiring no external verifier, no retrieval step, and no multiple generations.

Hallucinations remain a major obstacle for large language models (LLMs), especially in safety-critical domains. We present HALT (Hallucination Assessment via Log-probs as Time series), a lightweight hallucination detector that leverages only the top-20 token log-probabilities from LLM generations as a time series. HALT uses a gated recurrent unit model combined with entropy-based features to learn model calibration bias, providing an extremely efficient alternative to large encoders. Unlike white-box approaches, HALT does not require access to hidden states or attention maps, relying only on output log-probabilities. Unlike black-box approaches, it operates on log-probs rather than surface-form text, which enables stronger domain generalization and compatibility with proprietary LLMs without requiring access to internal weights. To benchmark performance, we introduce HUB (Hallucination detection Unified Benchmark), which consolidates prior datasets into ten capabilities covering both reasoning tasks (Algorithmic, Commonsense, Mathematical, Symbolic, Code Generation) and general purpose skills (Chat, Data-to-Text, Question Answering, Summarization, World Knowledge). While being 30x smaller, HALT outperforms Lettuce, a fine-tuned modernBERT-base encoder, achieving a 60x speedup gain on HUB. HALT and HUB together establish an effective framework for hallucination detection across diverse LLM capabilities.