Who Flips? Self- and Cross-Model Counterarguments Reveal Answer Instability in LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are powerful black-box systems, making it difficult to discern whether their answers reflect stable internal beliefs or superficial pattern matching. We identify cross-contextual consistency as an underutilized behavioral property of LLMs: a credible answer should remain stable when the same task is placed under topic-aligned, content-neutral contextual variation. Building on this intuition, we operationalize Cross-Contextual Consistency (C3) by comparing model generations under original and perturbed prompts. Across 26 models and six benchmarks spanning reasoning, factuality, and code generation, we find that answers with smaller cross-contextual shifts are more likely to be correct or factual. We demonstrate that C3 provides a complementary axis of evaluation and can serve as a benchmark usefulness diagnostic, identifying which portions of a benchmark remain informative even when aggregated scores are widely considered "saturate".

Standard benchmarks for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) score each item on one canonical ordering and miss whether order-irrelevant shuffling changes the answer, a baseline reliability property called for by emerging AI evaluation guidelines. We introduce Facet-Probe, a five-facet audit (option, evidence-chunk, document-rank, image-set, and mixed-modality ordering) of 18 frontier and open-weight MLLMs. A Bayesian item-response model separates ordering noise from per-facet bias, and a same-ordering control estimates the decoder-stochastic floor for observed flips. We find that none of the 18 MLLMs we audit are order-invariant: screened per-facet panel-mean flip rates span 24-50%. A Gemini same-ordering control at temperature 0 estimates a substantial ordering excess over a same-input decoder-noise floor in verified cells. Capability predicts but does not eliminate flips; the best model still flips on 13.4% of trials. In our Gemini mitigation tests, training-free prompt changes are modality-conditional and do not transfer from text to visual reasoning. These results suggest that prompt-level mitigation alone is unlikely to provide general order robustness, motivating future work on training-time and architectural approaches. We propose cross-ordering flip rate as a standard reporting axis for MLLMs.

AI Assistants are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, such as healthcare or government services. Yet their real-world behavior remains poorly understood due to strong context dependence. Current evaluation protocols follow a defense-in-depth paradigm with compounding layers of safeguards, ranging from traditional benchmarks to live or adversarial testing. Such benchmarks remain largely static and single-turn, limiting their ability to capture real-world variability in conversational settings. We propose StabilityBench, a principled, general and model-agnostic benchmark operator that transforms single-turn benchmark queries into multi-turn interaction histories. StabilityBench augments existing benchmarks by injecting realistic user simulations, through demographic proxies or sycophantic baits, while preserving original task intent. We apply StabilityBench to four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, health question-answering and safety, and evaluate nine large language models under these conditions. Our results show that model performance is consistently unstable under these injections, with considerable performance degradations on three out of four benchmarks studied. These highlight important limitations of static evaluations and motivate more realistic evaluation settings. To this end, we propose StabilityBench-Mini: a size-preserving variant of StabilityBench that samples across diversification axes, enabling more realistic evaluation without increasing costs.