From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text
Authors: Sadia Noor, Seemab Latif, Raja Khurram Shahzad, Mehwish Fatima
Organizations: School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (SEECS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan · Department of Communication, Quality Management and Information Systems, Mid Sweden University, Ostersund, Sweden
Abstract
Modeling dimensional affect in longitudinal text requires distinguishing current affect estimation from future affective change forecasting. Existing approaches often treat each text as an independent observation and apply similar assumptions to both tasks, without testing whether they rely on different information sources. This paper investigates that distinction using longitudinal self-reported ecological essays and feeling-word entries. We propose the Trait--State Affective Prediction (TSAP) framework and its temporal extension E-TSAP for per-text valence and arousal prediction, evaluated on a held-out prediction test set of 1,737 entries from 91 users. We further propose the Affective Change Forecaster Hybrid (ACF-Hybrid) for next-step affective change forecasting, evaluated on a held-out forecasting test set of 46 users. For prediction, E-TSAP achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.670 for valence and 0.449 for arousal. For forecasting, textual representations perform worse than compact numeric trajectory baselines: the text-inclusive model achieves only r=0.316 for valence and r=0.284 for arousal, whereas a simple prior-state baseline reaches r=0.615 and r=0.670, respectively. ACF-Hybrid, using dimension-specific numeric trajectory features, achieves r=0.659 for valence and r=0.658 for arousal. These results show that textual semantics support current affect prediction, whereas future affective change is better captured through prior numeric trajectory dynamics.
This paper presents our system developed for SemEval-2026 Task 2. The task requires modeling both current affect and short-term affective change in chronologically ordered user-generated texts. We explore three complementary approaches: (1) LLM prompting under user-aware and user-agnostic settings, (2) a pairwise Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with Ising-style interactions for structured transition modeling, and (3) a lightweight neural regression model incorporating recent affective trajectories and trainable user embeddings. Our findings indicate that LLMs effectively capture static affective signals from text, whereas short-term affective variation in this dataset is more strongly explained by recent numeric state trajectories than by textual semantics. Our system ranked first among participating teams in both Subtask 1 and Subtask 2A based on the official evaluation metric.
Humans infer emotions by integrating observed multimodal cues with expectations about how affective states may unfold. Existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs), however, often treat emotion recognition as static fusion over complete audiovisual-text inputs, leaving affective dynamics implicit. We propose AffectVerse, a Qwen2.5-Omni-based model equipped with an Emotion World Module (EWM), an action-free representation-level module for short-horizon latent affective prediction. \rev{EWM contains three modules: 1) Cross-Modal Temporal Imagination predicts future video/audio representations from past tokens with multi-step rollout. 2) MAMA(Modality-Aware Multi-step Attention) Belief Aggregation compresses imagined tokens into modality-aware belief tokens. 3) Belief Injection inserts these belief tokens into the LLM for affective reasoning.} AffectVerse uses future prediction as a past-conditioned self-supervised signal: it does not replace modeling observed history or require unseen signals at inference, but forces the current belief state to encode transition cues that are predictive of subsequent affective change. Across nine benchmarks, AffectVerse improves at least 2.57% over other models, while controlled ablations show additive gains from temporal imagination, cross-modal rollout, and belief aggregation. These results suggest predictive belief-state modeling is a practical alternative for affective computing.
Text encoders are known for their utility in natural language processing, as they are able to efficiently compress inputs into dense vectors while preserving semantics. These models have been applied to affective computing, in particular to help with solving sentiment analysis and emotion recognition tasks. Nevertheless, it remains unclear to what extent the latent representations produced by modern text encoders capture well-defined psychological theories of affect. In this work, we investigate the affective capabilities of twelve recently released text encoders by probing their generated embeddings as input features for solving regression and classification tasks across three established emotion frameworks, using both word- and sentence-level data. Additionally, we apply a semantic data-leakage prevention technique to improve robustness in word-level evaluations. Our main findings show that the latent manifolds of the latest instruction-aware open-weight encoders enclose an equal or even a larger amount of affective information in comparison with proprietary counterparts when evaluated at word level. In contrast, embeddings of task-tuned and proprietary encoders reach the highest scores on sentence-level affective classification. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of latent representations and their encoded affective cues is provided.
Fabio Ciani, Harald Schweiger, Emilia Parada-Cabaleiro +1