Decision-Focused Learning: When and Why Traditional Prediction Models Fail

We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task. Directly minimizing the empirical decision regret is intractable for linear programming and combinatorial optimization since the decision mapping is piecewise constant, and the gradients are zero almost everywhere. While existing methods address this by smoothing the differentiation process, they suffer from scalability issues, since a computationally expensive solver call is required for every gradient evaluation. To address this, we propose a decision-focused learning pipeline based on a measure transformation principle, which yields a new surrogate loss that is completely optimization-solver-free during training. We establish theoretical guarantees, including Fisher consistency and excess risk bounds. Empirically, our method achieves decision quality competitive with state-of-the-art methods while reducing training time by orders of magnitude.

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These predict-then-optimize' or contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictive models by optimizing downstream decision quality rather than standalone prediction accuracy. For contextual linear optimization, most existing DFL methods assume offline data and full observations of the objective cost vector. We develop an on-policy learning method for sequential contextual linear optimization under partial feedback, generalizing the standard bandit feedback setting. Our method learns a stochastic predict-then-optimize policy that samples a cost-vector prediction from a conditional distribution and solves the resulting downstream linear optimization problem. To update this distributional model, we introduce a two-component hybrid gradient estimator. The first component is a score function estimator, which provides an unbiased but potentially high-variance policy gradient estimate. The second is a decision-focused plug-in component that uses an auxiliary nuisance estimate of the latent cost vector to exploit the downstream optimization structure, becoming more informative as the estimate improves. We prove an $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ bound on the average squared policy-gradient norm, matching the standard non-convex SGD rate. Experiments on top-$k$ selection, shortest path, combinatorial pricing, and a real-data energy-scheduling benchmark show that the hybrid gradient approach achieves lower cumulative regret than contextual-bandit-style baselines across all benchmarks, using both Gaussian and richer conditional generative models. Code is available at https://github.com/Joeyetinghan/on-policy-bandit-dfl.