Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models
Authors: Attia Qammar, Qazi Haseeb Yousaf, Ali Azam, Ammar Ahmed, Abdenacer Naouri, Tianrui Li
Abstract
Climate change, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, requires accurate forecasting tools to support effective mitigation policies and sustainable development strategies. Existing forecasting approaches typically rely on centralized data collection, which is often restricted by privacy regulations and the distributed nature of emission data across countries and industrial sectors. This paper proposes a novel federated hybrid forecasting framework that integrates ARIMA-based trend modeling, GARCH-based volatility modeling, LSTM-Attention temporal representation learning, and XGBoost prediction within a privacy-preserving federated learning environment. The proposed framework enables collaborative learning among distributed clients without requiring the exchange of raw data. Experimental evaluation across 14 clients demonstrates strong forecasting performance, achieving client R2 values between 0.50 and 0.97 with an average of 0.73, RMSE values ranging from 0.06 to 2.35 with an average of 1.21, and MAPE values between 1.5% and 11.3% with an average of 6.5%. The results indicate that the proposed framework provides an accurate, scalable, and regulation-compliant solution for collaborative carbon-emission forecasting.
Accurate carbon emission monitoring is critical for climate policy and emerging regulatory mechanisms such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, yet city-level high-frequency monitoring data remain extremely scarce, severely limiting data-hungry deep learning models. Time series generation is a natural remedy, but existing GAN and diffusion-based generators often provide limited explicit supervision for the domain structure of carbon emission data: they may match marginal distributional statistics while insufficiently preserving cross-variable correlations between CO2 and co-emitted pollutants and meteorological factors, and tend to collapse the first-difference statistics of atmospheric measurements, producing sequences that are smooth on average but lack the realistic step-wise variability of the underlying signals. We propose TriHead-GAN, a Transformer-based adversarial framework whose triple-head discriminator jointly supervises three complementary aspects of the joint distribution: distributional authenticity via a Wasserstein critic, cross-variable dependency via leakage-free regression of the target variable, and step-wise temporal smoothness via adjacent-difference prediction. The generator combines global self-attention with local temporal convolution, per-step noise injection, and an anti-smoothing loss that matches first-difference statistics. Experiments on the self-collected Changsha Carbon dataset, two public carbon datasets (China, US), and the ETTh1 benchmark show that TriHead-GAN achieves favorable performance over mainstream baselines on the vast majority of settings, and that the resulting synthetic windows improve downstream forecasting accuracy in low-resource carbon monitoring scenarios.
Accurately estimating urban carbon emissions is critical for sustainable urban planning, yet many existing approaches remain difficult to apply consistently across cities due to data-source heterogeneity and the lack of fine-grained semantic-temporal context in remote sensing data. We propose CarbonCLIP, a task-oriented multimodal distillation framework that improves satellite-based carbon emission prediction by transferring contextual knowledge into a unified satellite representation through dual-branch contrastive learning. Unlike conventional methods that rely on static visual features, CarbonCLIP explicitly bridges the gap between top-down satellite views and ground-level human activities. Specifically, the spatial branch uses fine-grained textual descriptions automatically generated from street-view images by Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) to provide semantic priors reflecting building functions, infrastructure, and urban activities, while the temporal branch employs a month encoder to encode temporal priors associated with monthly emission variation. CarbonCLIP requires multimodal data only during the pretraining phase; during inference, it relies solely on satellite imagery, thereby supporting scalable deployment when ground-level data are unavailable at inference. Experiments on Beijing and Singapore demonstrate that CarbonCLIP outperforms baselines in both study cities. The results validate that our method effectively transfers multimodal knowledge into satellite representations, offering a robust solution for satellite-based urban carbon modeling.
Open datasets and benchmarks for entity-level carbon-emission prediction remain fragmented across access, scale, granularity, and evaluation. We introduce GHGbench, an open dataset and benchmark for company- and building-level greenhouse-gas prediction. The company track contains 32,000+ company-year records from 12,000+ firms with Scope 1+2 and Scope 3 disclosures and financial/sectoral signals; the building track harmonises 491,591 building-year records from 13 open sources into a single schema across 26 metropolitan areas (10 U.S., 15 Australian, 1 Singaporean), with climate covariates and multimodal remote-sensing embeddings. GHGbench defines canonical splits with in-distribution and cross-region/city transfer as primary tasks and temporal hold-out plus short-horizon forecasting as supplementary appendix evidence; headline baselines span gradient-boosted trees, a tabular foundation model, MLP, FT-Transformer, and multimodal fusion, with an LLM panel as auxiliary, all evaluated under multi-seed paired-bootstrap tests. Three benchmark-level findings emerge: (i) building emissions are structurally harder than company emissions; (ii) the in-distribution to out-of-distribution gap dwarfs any within-model gap across both the company track and the building track, and a tabular foundation model is, to our knowledge, the first baseline to open a paired-bootstrap-significant gap over tuned trees on a multi-city building-emissions task; (iii) multimodal remote-sensing embeddings help precisely where tabular generalisation breaks. GHGbench also exposes catastrophic city transfer and the sector-factor lookup ceiling as systematic failure modes. Code and reconstruction recipes are available at GHGbench.