The Degeneracy Distillery

Over-parameterized linear regression has been widely studied over the last decade. However, most existing works assume that the covariates are independent and that their covariance matrices are non-degenerate. In this paper, we relax both assumptions and derive deterministic equivalents for the prediction risk in a vanishing-ridge regime. We show that degeneracy of the covariance matrices and dependence can lead to multiple descent, and characterize where the corresponding peaks can occur. Our proofs use a novel graph representation of the variance profile. We show that maximum matchings and the Dulmage--Mendelsohn decomposition of the associated bipartite graph identify the configurations at which the variance becomes singular.

Singular learning theory and information geometry study the same spaces: the former in resolved coordinates, the latter in original coordinates under a non-degeneracy assumption that overparameterised models violate. This paper carries one direction of the bridge between them, from Watanabe's invariants to Fisher geometry, through one primitive, the dead direction: a unit vector along which the Fisher metric degenerates, equivalently a direction crossing the analytic singular set along which the KL divergence keeps a zero of high order, its KL order set by how fast that divergence vanishes. Our central result recovers the KL order as the decay rate of the directional Fisher quadratic form approaching the singularity, in original coordinates, without a Hironaka resolution. A selection rule on smooth fibres translates this rate into Watanabe's single-direction contribution to the real log canonical threshold, and the recovery extends to multi-component crossings, multiplicity $m$, the singular fluctuation $ν$, prior-RLCT shifts, and tempered posteriors. We then carry the rate into a deep network: a multi-layer K-FAC factorisation writes each Fisher block as a product of activation- and gradient-side rates with a duality between them, instantiated at residual streams, layer normalisation, and attention. A quotient theorem carries the rate to the gauge quotient for optimizers whose update commutes with the group action; Adam's per-coordinate preconditioner fails that condition, so we construct DDCAdam, an equivariant Adam-family preconditioner, and prove the quotient rate along its trajectory. The result is a trajectory-rate readout of Watanabe's triple $(λ, m, ν)$ from one checkpoint's forward and backward passes, without posterior sampling.

We study the spectral perturbation of the empirical Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) of a parametric statistical model under two structured perturbations: departure of the input from a reference (in-distribution) ensemble, and finite-precision (quantized) perturbation of the model's parameters. For the first, under an explicit local curvature-monotonicity hypothesis on the dominant eigenvalue lambda_max of the FIM, we show departure from a reference manifold provably elevates lambda_max relative to a calibration baseline (Proposition 3.2), and discuss why this hypothesis is required, since curvature need not increase monotonically under every perturbation. Our principal result is a directional eigenvalue perturbation bound, via Weyl's inequality, showing lambda_max under a quantization noise perturbation is lower bounded by its unperturbed value up to a third-order remainder, and, under a mild genericity condition, strictly exceeds it at leading order (Theorem 4.3). We give two tractable approximations to lambda_max -- one heuristic, one with a rigorous two-sided bound -- and a completeness result for a threshold-based partition of an augmented state space. These results motivate using sigma_t = lambda_max(F_t)/lambda_base as a runtime monitoring statistic for deployed language models: the quantization result offers a mechanism for an empirical observation of our own, where a calibration threshold for this statistic was approximately 244 times larger than a preliminary full-precision estimate on a 4-bit quantized model, a single measurement rather than a value derived in closed form. We report supporting measurements (twelve models, n=1,080 trajectories) broadly consistent with our predictions, discuss the scope and limitations of every result, and state as an open problem the closed-form prediction of the quantization inflation magnitude our bound does not supply.