The Gentle Collapse: Distributional Metrics for Continual Learning
Authors: Ahmed Anwar, Andreas Wagner, Federico Raue, Tobias Nauen, Andreas Dengel
Organizations: 1German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) · 2RPTU University Kaiserslautern-Landau, Kaiserslautern, Germany · 3Hochschule Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences, Karlsruhe, Germany
Abstract
Accuracy degradation is the standard metric for Catastrophic Forgetting (CF), however, it records only whether forgetting occurred or not. It saturates at the extremes and collapses discretely at task boundaries, hiding the internal structure of what is being forgotten. We introduce six softmax-derived metrics spanning true-label rank (TLR), predictive confidence, and distributional divergence that characterize forgetting continuously, each normalized to [0, 1] with no modification to training. On CIFAR-100, these metrics carry information where accuracy does not: at 0% accuracy, the Confusion Margin spans an IQR of [0.32, 0.50] across classes that accuracy treats identically. We demonstrate that this richer signal is actionable in mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Per-sample metric scores used as loss weights reduce forgetting by 1.3 percentage points over uniform experience replay (ER) on CIFAR-100. Furthermore, the slope of a metric over a small window provides a stable sampling criterion: at a small-window size (e.g. 3 epochs), accuracy-trend degrades to 34.79% (std. = 2.32) while log-TLR achieves 41.07% (std. = 0.57). This gap is structural since reliable small-window trend estimation requires a continuous signal. On TinyImageNet, log-TLR trend sampling reduces forgetting by 7.7 percentage points over the ER baseline.
Catastrophic forgetting is commonly interpreted as the irreversible erasure of previously acquired knowledge during sequential learning. In this work, we investigate an alternative perspective: that forgetting may arise not from complete destruction of task representations but from a loss of accessibility to preserved information. We introduce a three-level framework separating knowledge storage, representation, and accessibility, and evaluate each component through a series of continual-learning experiments on sequential CIFAR-100 classification using ResNet-18. Our analysis combines checkpoint persistence, linear probing, representation geometry, classifier-reset recovery, and layer-wise recoverability experiments. We observe complete behavioral forgetting of earlier tasks, with task accuracy collapsing from 54.8% to 0%, while linear probe performance retains approximately 76% of the original representational information. Furthermore, retraining only the final classifier restores 75.7% of the original task performance without modifying the backbone network. Layer-wise analysis reveals that early and intermediate layers preserve highly recoverable task information despite severe degradation at later stages. Projection-energy and principal-angle analyses indicate that retained knowledge persists as distributed high-dimensional representations rather than through preservation of a small dominant subspace. These findings suggest that catastrophic forgetting is better characterized as an accessibility failure than complete representational erasure, and that substantial task-relevant information remains embedded within neural representations even after functional forgetting has occurred.
Catastrophic forgetting is often viewed as the destruction of previously learned knowledge during sequential learning. Building on the Accessibility Collapse framework, we investigate the geometric structure of recoverability in continual learning. Using Split CIFAR-100 and a sequentially trained ResNet-18, we analyze recoverability, representational drift, and recovery complexity across ten tasks. We introduce Recovery Subspace Dimensionality (k_t), a measure of the minimum number of singular directions required to preserve 90 percent of full probe performance. Contrary to our Recoverability Diffusion hypothesis, recovery dimensionality remains stable throughout training (mean k_t = 8.0) despite substantial representational drift. Principal-angle drift strongly predicts recoverability (r = -0.862), and a simple geometric model explains 82.2 percent of recoverability variance. These findings support the Stable Recovery Manifold hypothesis, suggesting that forgotten knowledge remains compactly decodable despite representational reorganization. The results indicate that catastrophic forgetting is primarily an accessibility and manifold-alignment problem rather than information destruction.
Catastrophic forgetting is often framed as a representational problem: after sequential training, a model appears to lose the features that supported performance on earlier tasks. We challenge the stronger form of this view. Across controlled continual-learning settings, we find that a significant portion of apparent forgetting can be attributed to interface drift between internal stages rather than permanent erasure of task-relevant computation. We study this phenomenon through a stitched evaluation protocol that combines early computation from a post-update network with late computation from its predecessor, optionally mediated by a compact, task-specific transport key. We describe transport keys at a systems level as compact interface-alignment operators estimated from a small set of paired anchor activations and evaluated through model stitching. On split CIFAR-100 with a ResNet-style network, transport keys recover most of the original Task A performance after sequential training on Task B. On a compact vision transformer, we observe a similar recovery pattern. These results suggest that continual learning may require better mechanisms for indexing and re-accessing latent computations, not only methods that prevent weight change.