When Does Quality-Aware Multimodal Fusion Matter? A Leakage-Safe Diagnostic for Decision-Level Dependence

Multimodal fusion requires integrating information from multiple sources that may conflict depending on context. Existing fusion approaches typically rely on static assumptions about source reliability, limiting their ability to resolve conflicts when a modality becomes unreliable due to situational factors such as sensor degradation or class-specific corruption. We introduce C$^2$MF, a context-specfic credibility-aware multimodal fusion framework that models per-instance source reliability using a Conditional Probabilistic Circuit (CPC). We formalize instance-level reliability through Context-Specific Information Credibility (CSIC), a KL-divergence-based measure computed exactly from the CPC. CSIC generalizes conventional static credibility estimates as a special case, enabling principled and adaptive reliability assessment. To evaluate robustness under cross-modal conflicts, we propose the Conflict benchmark, in which class-specific corruptions deliberately induce discrepancies between different modalities. Experimental results show that C$^2$MF improves predictive accuracy by up to 29% over static-reliability baselines in high-noise settings, while preserving the interpretability advantages of probabilistic circuit-based fusion.

Multimodal sentiment analysis relies on language, visual, and acoustic cues, but utterance-level modality quality may vary due to occlusion, background noise, motion blur, or imperfect transcripts, causing conventional fusion to over-trust unreliable modalities. We propose MRUF, a reliability-aware fusion method that combines multi-granularity routing with uncertainty-aware calibration. MRUF summarizes sentiment-relevant representations, performs subspace- and modality-level routing, and supervises modality routing with leave-one-out error increases to estimate utterance-level modality importance. It further predicts modality-wise uncertainty and refines modality gates through inverse-variance reweighting, while modality-invariant contrastive alignment stabilizes the shared representation space. Experiments on CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI under aligned and unaligned settings show consistent improvements over strong baselines, and mechanism analysis verifies that modalities with higher predicted uncertainty receive lower fusion weights.

Multimodal fusion must simultaneously refine modality-specific signals and model cross-modal interactions; two competing objectives typically entangled within the same operation. We propose \textbf{SeRIn} (\textbf{Se}gregate, \textbf{R}efine, \textbf{In}tegrate), a multimodal LM fusion scheme that enforces this separation as an architectural prior. Modality-specific representations evolve along isolated pathways, each refined against its respective encoder context, while a dedicated cross-modal pathway accumulates their joint evolution without contaminating unimodal streams. Full cross-modal interaction is deferred to a final prediction step - ablations confirm that structured interactions, not added capacity, drive the gains; gate analysis under visual corruption reveals emergent modality reweighting without explicit supervision. SeRIn achieves state-of-the-art results on CH-SIMS and CMU-MOSEI, improving all metrics on both benchmarks.