Structure Before Collapse: Transient semantic geometry in next-token prediction

Token prediction is a central pre-training objective for modern language models. Despite its empirical success, why token prediction learns broadly useful representations remains incompletely understood. We develop a statistical framework connecting token prediction with representation geometry, encoder approximation, and downstream performance. Under a softmax prediction head, we show that accurate token prediction organizes token embeddings according to similarities between the distributions of contexts in which different token types appear, as measured by Hellinger distance, with explicit errors governed by prediction accuracy and token frequency. Meanwhile, the contextual representation provides a low-dimensional coordinate for the conditional distribution of the target token relative to these embeddings. We further introduce a self-consistency principle showing that repeated applications of a shared representation block can progressively refine the contextual representation without introducing additional block parameters. Among representations with the same prediction accuracy, this recurrent construction favors those that can be stably reconstructed from their contexts. Finally, we establish downstream guarantees for token generation, token community recovery, and classification by a linear probe, showing how prediction accuracy and recovered geometry translate into performance beyond the pre-training objective. Together, these results explain how the simple objective of predicting tokens can recover semantic geometry and produce broadly useful representations. A controlled simulation illustrates the theoretical mechanisms.

Within-class variance in language-model representations is commonly read as incomplete neural collapse. We argue it is allocated information storage, and that the allocation obeys a law. A one-line centering identity voids a family of simplex equiangular-tight-frame claims, including our own earlier ones; in dimensionless variance shares across 14 models, macro-category structure carries only 4-12% of representational variance and within-token context carries 79-91%, stable across a 100x parameter range. On the theory side, token-level weight decay penalizes a category in proportion to its type count, not its occurrence mass, reducing next-token prediction to an imbalanced K-class problem whose optimum orders category norms by type count. A converse floor, proved for binary categories, forces within-category dispersion to be at least proportional to the conditional mutual information I(token; context | category). The law holds: identity dispersion, not total variance, tracks this information across every tested model and partition, under a model-free estimate and even across models, where one model's information predicts another's dispersion; and over pretraining the category share overshoots, decays, and partially recovers, because the information it must carry never left.

Neural collapse is a structural property of the last-hidden-layer activations in neural network classification models, when trained beyond a zero classification error. In this work, we explore the role of label encoding in neural collapse by relying on the unrestricted feature model with mean squared error training loss. We demonstrate that, for one-hot encoded labels and balanced data, the uncentered mean features associated with each class transition from a simplex equiangular tight frame to an orthogonal frame when increasing the bias regularization coefficient associated with the final classifier. These structures are reminiscent of the orthogonal frame structure of one-hot encoded labels. For any arbitrary encoding, we also show that the final classifier's bias aims at centering the labels, compensating for the discrepancy between the global mean of the labels and the origin. We further discuss the role of the encoding in other neural collapse properties.