Neuro-Bayesian-Symbolic Residual Attention Shallow Network: Explainable Deep Learning for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Large language models (LLMs) are transforming everyday applications, yet deployment in cybersecurity lags due to a lack of high-quality, domain-specific models and training datasets. To address this gap, we present CyberPal 2.0, a family of cybersecurity-expert small language models (SLMs) ranging from 4B-20B parameters. To train CyberPal 2.0, we generate an enriched chain-of-thought cybersecurity instruction dataset built with our data enrichment and formatting pipeline, SecKnowledge 2.0, which integrates expert-in-the-loop steering of reasoning formats alongside LLM-driven multi-step grounding, yielding higher-fidelity, task-grounded reasoning traces for security tasks. Across diverse cybersecurity benchmarks, CyberPal 2.0 consistently outperforms its baselines and matches or surpasses various open and closed-source frontier models, while remaining a fraction of their size. On core cyber threat intelligence knowledge tasks, our models outperform almost all tested frontier models, ranking second only to Sec-Gemini v1. On core threat-investigation tasks, such as correlating vulnerabilities and bug tickets with weaknesses, our best 20B-parameter model outperforms GPT-4o, o1, o3-mini, and Sec-Gemini v1, ranking first, while our smallest 4B-parameter model ranks second.

The increasing penetrations of the critical infrastructure sector in the United States with intelligent digital technologies have greatly increased exposure to advanced cyber adversaries and operational vulnerabilities. AI-powered governance and automated decision-making systems are becoming a key part of the operation of critical infrastructure systems, including energy, healthcare, transportation, financial services, and communication infrastructure, in order to improve efficiency and strategic management. The growing cyber threat environment, such as Distributed Denial of Service (DDos) attacks, botnets, ransomware, and Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) pose significant challenges to infrastructure resilience, cyber security reliability, and governance trustworthiness. In a changing attack landscape and dynamic network environment, traditional cybersecurity mechanisms can often fall short of meeting the evolving needs and protecting critical systems. This study will develop a resilient cyber risk analytics and model reliability assessment framework to support intelligent governance and decision support for cyber risk exposure in the U.S. critical infrastructure environment. This study is based on the CICIDS2017 dataset for the development and testing of intrusion detection system models and cyber risk prediction models based on machine learning. Various classifiers like XGBoost, Random Forest, and Decision Tree are used to detect malicious activities on the network and determine the level of cyber risk. Furthermore, the Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques are integrated to enhance transparency, interpretability, and trust in cybersecurity decision-making processes. The proposed framework presents the reliability and resilience of the model by having various performance measures such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, and false positive rate.

Deep neural networks often exploit spurious associations, a failure known as shortcut learning. Before deployment, models should be audited for reliance on a set of concepts, such as acquisition artifacts or demographics. Current methods, such as linear probes and concept activation vectors, measure reliance by asking whether each concept, in isolation, is decodable from a layer. Their scores therefore reflect not only reliance but also correlations in the audit dataset. We introduce Independent Canonical cONcept (ICON) decomposition, which quantifies the share of a layer's variance each concept explains, conditional on all other concepts and the outcome. ICON scores are variance shares, comparable across layers and between continuous and categorical concepts. ICON also reports the share the set leaves unexplained. On simulated data, ICON recovers the true importance more accurately than seven baselines. On skin-cancer and neuroimaging models, ICON distinguishes learned shortcuts from correlated concepts, confirmed by retraining and out-of-distribution tests.