Probabilistic Robustness in Medical Image Classification

We study whether deep networks for medical imaging learn useful nonrobust features - predictive input patterns that are not human interpretable and highly susceptible to small adversarial perturbations - and how these features impact test performance. We show that models trained only on nonrobust features achieve well above chance accuracy across five MedMNIST classification tasks, confirming their predictive value in-distribution. Conversely, adversarially trained models that primarily rely on robust features sacrifice in-distribution accuracy but yield markedly better performance under controlled distribution shifts (MedMNIST-C). Overall, nonrobust features boost standard accuracy yet degrade out-of-distribution performance, revealing a practical robustness-accuracy trade-off in medical imaging classification tasks that should be tailored to the requirements of the deployment setting.

Medical foundation models have achieved remarkable clinical performance, yet their robustness under real-world perturbations remains underexplored. We present a robustness benchmark comprising 40 perturbation types (12 base, 28 medical-specific) across eight imaging modalities, evaluating five VLMs (LLaVA-Med, MedGemma, MedGemma-1.5, Gemini-2.5-flash and GPT-4o-mini) on VQA, visual grounding, and captioning, alongside two segmentation models (MedSAM, SAM-Med2D) with five fine-tuning strategies. Our findings reveal: (1) Fine-tuning strategy dominates robustness, with LoRA exhibiting nearly double the degradation of full fine-tuning, while SAM-Med2D's Adapter offers favorable efficiency-robustness trade-off. (2) Medical-specific perturbations disproportionately damage segmentation, with 9 of 15 top corruptions being domain-specific. (3) LoRA-tuned visual grounding drops over 40 points, whereas zero-shot captioning remains stable (<7% drop). Zero-shot VQA shows model-dependent robustness--medical models drop under 20% while Gemini-2.5-flash drops 54%. General-purpose VLMs achieve higher VQA accuracy but fail on grounding; among medical VLMs, MedGemma demonstrates the best overall stability. These results provide deployment guidelines and underscore the necessity of domain-specific robustness evaluation for medical AI. Our code is available at: https://abnerai.github.io/MedFM-Robust.

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models with similar validation performance exhibit divergent real-world failure modes. Although stress testing has emerged as a tool to assess this, current methods typically rely on simple, uninformed perturbations (e.g., brightness or contrast changes), which fail to capture clinically realistic variation and can overestimate robustness. In this work, we introduce a counterfactual stress testing framework based on causal generative models that create realistic "what if" images by intervening on attributes such as scanner type and patient sex while preserving anatomical identity, enabling controlled and semantically meaningful evaluation under targeted distribution shifts. Across two imaging modalities (chest X-ray and mammography), three model architectures, and multiple shift scenarios, we show that counterfactual stress tests provide a substantially more accurate proxy for real out-of-distribution performance than classical perturbations, capturing the direction and relative magnitude of performance changes as well as model ranking. These results suggest that causal generative models can serve as practical simulators for robustness assessment, offering a more reliable basis for evaluating medical AI systems prior to deployment.