Large language models generate one token at a time, yet their responses show remarkably consistent length structure: step-by-step solutions converge in predictable token counts, retrievals stop after a few sentences, retractions extend responses by measurable amounts. We ask whether the model carries an internal estimate of how much response remains. Training minimal-capacity linear probes on frozen hidden states of three open-weight 7-8B models across seven completion-style datasets, we find three converging pieces of evidence. First, total response length is linearly decodable from the prompt's last hidden state alone, before any output is emitted. Second, probe directions trained on natural-language datasets transfer broadly, including to controlled synthetic completions never seen in training, outperforming a statistical baseline; the converse direction generally fails, and this asymmetry is itself informative. Third, on curated high-loss completions, the probe's per-position estimate shifts upward at the moment the model retracts and restarts a partial solution, a directional behavior no position-only predictor can reproduce (qualitative, not aggregate). We frame this as approximate estimation of remaining generation length, distinct from exact-counting impossibility results for transformers, and interpret it as evidence that LLMs maintain a plan-like internal representation of output length (decodable, not necessarily used causally).
Large Language Models often achieve strong performance by generating long intermediate chain-of-thought reasoning. However, it remains unclear when a model's final answer is actually determined during generation. If the answer is already fixed at an intermediate stage, subsequent reasoning tokens may constitute post-decision explanation, increasing inference cost and latency without improving correctness. We study the evolution of predicted answers over reasoning steps using forced answer completion, which elicits the model's intermediate predictions at partial reasoning prefixes. Focusing on Qwen3-4B and averaging results across all datasets considered, we find that predicted answers change in only 32% of queries. Moreover, once the final answer switch occurs, the model generates an average of 760 additional reasoning tokens per query, accounting for a substantial fraction of the total reasoning budget. Motivated by these findings, we investigate early stopping strategies that halt generation once the answer has stabilized. We show that simple heuristics, including probe-based stopping, can reduce reasoning token usage by 500 tokens per query while incurring only a 2% drop in accuracy. Together, our results indicate that a large portion of chain-of-thought generation is redundant and can be reduced with minimal impact on performance.
Writing a sentence of exactly twelve words; ending a DNA sequence at the right codon; formatting an ASCII table. These are all tasks that language models can do that requires tracking how many tokens remain before a target. In this work, we identify in Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct a general mechanism for performing these tasks: a "countdown subcircuit" that compares the current position to a goal length and estimates the time remaining until then. We first isolate a countdown subcircuit in a controlled setting, in which the model is tasked with writing a fixed-length sentence ending in a specified word. We then investigate the geometry of the representations used by the subcircuit, and find that the subcircuit uses an identical motif previously identified in a frontier LLM on a separate task, thus suggesting that this motif is shared across models. Finally, we use unsupervised probing on a natural language dataset to find a variety of other tasks where this subcircuit is used, including tasks where the goal length is inferred from context rather than explicitly stated. Our work suggests that reverse-engineering subcircuits allows us to understand how behaviors generalize from a single example to many different tasks and even models.
The heavy-tailed distribution of output lengths in Large Language Model (LLM) serving poses major challenges for resource provisioning and cluster scheduling. Although output-length prediction can mitigate these issues, existing approaches have key drawbacks: external proxy models add substantial latency and often have limited fidelity, whereas internal state-based methods are efficient but rely on shallow probes of current model states. We identify a structural connection between speculative decoding (SD) and length prediction: latent representations produced by the draft decoder in advanced frameworks (e.g., EAGLE-3) encode signals that are predictive of generation length. Building on this insight, we introduce OUTLETS (Output-Length Prediction from Speculative Decoding Backbones), which repurposes the speculative backbone as a trajectory-aware length predictor. When its draft representations are already computed for speculative decoding, OUTLETS adds only a lightweight regression head and achieves lower MAE than the evaluated methods. Under saturated disaggregated serving, OUTLETS predictions enable standard scheduling policies to prioritize shorter requests and distribute requests more evenly across decoding instances, reducing short-request P99 latency by 34.8%.