RPAM: A Principled Metric for Evaluating Associations in Language Models with High Predictive Validity in Downstream Outputs

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly $10{,}000\times$ less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an $18\times$ compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback has become the standard paradigm for language model alignment, where reward models directly determine alignment effectiveness. In this work, we focus on how to evaluate the generalizability of reward models. By "generalizability", we mean the ability of RMs to correctly rank responses to align with diverse user preferences. However, existing reward model benchmarks are typically designed around a universal preference, failing to assess this generalization. To address this critical gap, we introduce RMGAP, a benchmark comprising 1,097 instances across Chat, Writing, Reasoning, and Safety domains. Since different users exhibit diverse preferences for the same task, we first generate four distinct responses with different linguistic profiles for each collected prompt. However, the original prompt set lacks the specificity to convey different preferences. We therefore construct tailored prompts by contrasting these candidates and designing scenarios in which one response becomes the uniquely appropriate choice. Moreover, we observe that users often express the same preference using different phrasings, and thus extend each prompt with two paraphrased variants. Our evaluation of 24 state-of-the-art RMs reveals their substantial limitations: even the best RM achieves only 49.27% Best-of-N accuracy, highlighting considerable room for improvement in reward model generalization. Related data and code are available at https://github.com/nanzhi84/RMGAP.

Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.