Synthetic Consumer Insight Generation with Large Language Models

LLMs are increasingly used as ``digital consumers'' to simulate public opinion, pre-test marketing decisions, and anticipate audience response. However, existing evaluations rarely ask whether a model can reconstruct the concrete reaction patterns that real consumers surface in public discourse. We introduce ConsumerSimBench, a benchmark built from 1,553 real Chinese social-media topics and 23,122 atomic, rule-audited criteria spanning four reaction families. Rather than scoring open-ended generations with a holistic preference judge, ConsumerSimBench decomposes each task into auditable yes-no decisions over concrete reaction points, raising three-judge agreement from 65.8% to 92.1% with 98.4% agreement between pointwise judge decisions and human-majority labels. Across 13 frontier generators, the strongest model, Gemini-3.1-Pro, covers only 47.8% of real reaction criteria, while GPT-5.2 and Claude-4.6 trail far behind despite their strength on technical benchmarks. The failures reveal a sharp gap between technical-benchmark performance and socially grounded consumer intuition. A direct structured reasoning prompt decreases coverage, while a generate--reflect multi-agent pipeline improves MiMo-V2.5-Pro from 32.9% to 37.6% on a subset. ConsumerSimBench reframes consumer simulation as a forecasting problem over real public-discourse reactions, showing that frontier LLMs remain far from reliably predicting what consumers will actually care about in high-context Chinese consumer discourse.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as synthetic users, stand-ins for human respondents whose simulated answers feed product, policy, and market decisions. We ask when this substitution is valid and when it fails, and package the answer as an evaluation framework for intelligent synthetic-user systems. A single protocol, run across four models spanning two families and an 8B-to-frontier capability range, is applied to two independent domains of real human-response data: U.S. general social attitudes (General Social Survey) and cross-cultural values (World Values Survey). Every model is benchmarked against a suite of non-LLM baselines fit on held-out human data. Under demographic prompting and the survey-simulation protocols we test, two failures replicate across both domains, all four models, and both families. First, at the individual level no LLM beats even the strongest baseline; on cross-cultural values every model falls well below it, and the gap survives distance-aware and proper scoring. Second, models systematically over-determine demographics, treating identity as far more predictive of attitudes than it is among real people, a distortion present for nearly every question-group combination and robust to a coding-invariant measure. Neither failure is remedied by a larger, more capable model. A decision-impact analysis shows why this matters in practice: on a segment-targeting task the models inflate between-segment gaps two to fourfold, would direct a team to the wrong segment in half of U.S. and most cross-cultural cases, and manufacture segment splits that do not exist in real people. We make the cross-domain benchmark and the evaluation framework available on request, so that teams can determine in advance when synthetic-user evidence is safe for decision support and when it is not.

Large-language models have proven to be remarkable if inconsistent parrots of public attitudes and opinions. The extent to which LLMs are able to produce reasonable approximations of cultural taste remains an open empirical question that becomes more urgent by the day, with market research companies already offering provisional 'synthetic' survey panels and the contamination of standard survey data from LLM-generated responses. In this study, we build on past work on silicon sampling by extending considerations of their ecological, relational, and positional fidelity in the doomain of cultural tastes. We use large-language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek to produce 554,940 silicon surrogates of survey respondents from the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA). We find these silicon surrogates' tastes to be highly stylized facsimiles of human tastes. First, silicon samples are super-omnivorous with a systematic postive-bias for liking. These individual-level bias of silicon samples are not well-explained by the WEIRD-bias often discussed in the literature. Second, the complex relationality in real taste structures is completely distorted among silicon samples. Third, very little of the known cultural alignment between tastes and social space are preserved. Silicon samples juvenilize age-taste associations, resurrect anachronistic class-taste associations, and caricaturize gender- and race-taste associations. Key words: AI, taste, consumption, culture, silicon sampling, meta-analysis.