Abstract
Evaluating uncertainty in AI-generated SQL queries requires estimating whether a query is correct, where correct means it executes to the same result as a human-written reference. We study which signals predict correctness on hard multi-table text-to-SQL, using AUROC to measure how well each ranks correct queries above incorrect ones. On BIRD and Spider, black-box signals such as string, structural, and execution self-consistency, a schema-relevance score, and query executability all fall between about 0.61 and 0.68 AUROC, with string self-consistency strongest at 0.675; white-box log-probability is similar (0.67). The signals that move past this ceiling are verification-based: an LLM judge scores from 0.72 (GPT-4o-mini) to 0.78 (Claude). Judges from different providers make different errors, so a two-provider ensemble reaches 0.82 AUROC with a well-calibrated probability (expected calibration error 0.03) and supports useful abstention frontiers (for example, answering 27% of questions at 24% selective risk) where self-consistency offers no valid low-risk subset. The pattern holds across two benchmarks, two generators, and two judge providers. We also ask whether a verifier can be trained. Fine-tuned verifiers, both encoder and generative, reach about 0.77 to 0.79 AUROC in-distribution but fall to about 0.66 on unseen schemas; scaling to 7B, adding schema diversity, distilling a strong judge's rationales, and cross-benchmark training all fail to close that gap. Cross-schema transfer appears to track model scale and reasoning rather than fine-tuning. In practice, correctness uncertainty for text-to-SQL lives in reasoning-based signals: a fine-tuned verifier is a good in-domain tool, but a verifier that generalizes across schemas currently means a large frozen reasoning model.
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Jun 29, 2026cs.CL
Improving the reliability of large language models (LLMs) at inference time is a central challenge in structured reasoning tasks such as Text-to-SQL. Common test-time inference strategies, including Best-of-N sampling and Majority Voting, rely on heuristic signals such as execution success or output frequency, which provide limited semantic discrimination across candidate outputs. In this work, we study Outcome Reward Models (ORMs) as learned semantic scoring functions for test-time verification in Text-to-SQL. While ORMs have been previously explored for test-time scaling and alignment, their application to structured query generation remains underexplored. We introduce GradeSQL, a scalable framework for training task-specific ORMs via automated candidate generation and execution-based labeling, enabling verifier training without manual annotation. We integrate ORMs into a verification-driven Best-of-N pipeline and evaluate our approach on the BIRD and Spider benchmarks across multiple open-source LLM families. ORM-based selection consistently outperforms execution-based Best-of-N and Majority Voting, with gains of up to +4.33% on BIRD and +2.10% on Spider. We further show that ORMs scale effectively with larger candidate sets and yield stronger improvements on complex queries. Overall, our results demonstrate that ORM-based verification provides a simple, effective, and scalable alternative to heuristic test-time selection strategies for Text-to-SQL. Code datasets and models are publicly available.
Mattia Tritto, Giuseppe Farano, Dario Di Palma +4
Date pendingcs.DB
Prompting-based (i.e., non-fine-tuning) Text-to-SQL methods, where underlying large language model parameters are not changed for the task, face three problems: (i) relying on coarse-grained schema information that may not reveal the fine-grained relationships needed to distinguish ambiguous columns, (ii) failing to capture recurring SQL-generation failures, and (iii) suffering from omission or hallucination of components in complex questions. This paper develops DexterSQL, a prompting/non-fine-tuning-based Text-to-SQL system that improves SQL generation with three novel components: (i) deep schema explorator that identifies ambiguous columns, analyzes their individual and joint data distributions to uncover their relationships and the distinct role of each, (ii) database-agnostic rule creator that mines mismatches between generated and gold SQL only on the training database and converts them into database-agnostic corrective rules that capture recurring LLM failure patterns; and (iii) multi-path SQL generation that introduces a dependency-tree-based intermediate representation that uses the question's sentence structure to guide its decomposition into an SQL skeleton for final SQL generation. DexterSQL achieves a higher accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art using both open-source/weight and closed-source/weight models. Particularly, DexterSQL shows a high improvement of at least 5.5% using an open-weight model (GPT-OSS-120B) on BIRDDev, with total accuracy 70.4%. DexterSQL also shows better improvement of at least 1.4% using closed-weight models, with total accuracy 72.1% and 72.9% on BIRD-Dev with GPT-4o and GPT-5.2.
Anik Pramanik, Murat Kantarcioglu, Vincent Oria +1
Jul 4, 2026cs.LG
Repeated LLM calls are the standard way to estimate how trustworthy a Text-to-SQL result is: run the pipeline multiple times, judge each SQL execution, and use the consistency of the verdicts as a confidence signal. The open question is when to stop, when the consistency has converged. We formulate this as a convergence-prediction problem and train a family of lightweight 1-D models that observe the running consistency trajectory and decide, at each step, whether further runs are unlikely to shift it materially, and we benchmark them against a principled Beta-Bernoulli stopping rule and a learned run-count baseline. On the BIRD benchmark and two production customer datasets, our method adapts its stopping point to each user question, halting sooner when consistency converges early and continuing longer when it converges late. We further show that the weak serial correlation between runs lets us permute their order as a training augmentation, controlled by a tunable shuffling weight. Performance stays consistent across the three datasets, and to mimic an imperfect production judge we inject noise into the correct/incorrect verdicts obtained by comparing the generated and ground-truth SQL results, showing that the method still predicts convergence reliably.
Yaron Anavi, Mor Aisenberg, Nadav Nesher +2