Organizations: School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University · Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore · SC Johnson College of Business, Cornell University · Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington
Best-arm identification is a canonical model for data-driven decision-making, but in many applications each reward observation is costly. Motivated by the growing availability of cheap predictions from machine learning and large language models, we study fixed-confidence best-arm identification in which each costly reward pull is paired with a cheap but correlated proxy score. The marginal mean of the proxy can be estimated offline and is treated as known, whereas its correlation ρ with the reward, which governs how much the proxy helps, is unknown and must be learned online in pair with real rewards. We show that a control-variate adjustment turns this model into a heteroscedastic identification problem whose oracle sample complexity improves by residual variance 1−ρ2. The central difficulty is that the correlation must be learned from the same costly samples that identification consumes online, and that a plug-in estimate of the residual variance is anti-conservative and can compromise correctness. We propose PROBE (PRoxy OLS for Best-arm Exploration), a phase-elimination algorithm that directly maintains an upper certificate on the residual variance with an ordinary least squares fit, whose exact chi-square law keeps the certificate valid regardless of the unknown correlation. We prove that PROBE is δ-PAC and attains the known-correlation oracle sample complexity up to a constant multiplicative factor and a constant additive calibration cost. The guarantee extends to the (ε,δ)-PAC setting under minimal changes to the algorithm. Numerical experiments on synthetic instances and on an auto-loan pricing replay with large language model and tabular proxies confirm that the sample savings of PROBE scale with the strength of the reward-proxy correlation, exactly as the theory predicts.
In fixed-budget best-arm identification, also known as ranking and selection, an algorithm has a sampling budget to distribute across K arms. Each sample provides noisy feedback about that arm's mean, and the goal is to identify the arm with the largest mean. A common performance benchmark is the static oracle: a non-adaptive strategy that knows the means in advance and chooses fixed sampling proportions to maximize the exponential decay rate of the probability of incorrect identification. Several adaptive algorithms have been constructed such that their sampling proportions converge to the static oracle proportions. However, it has remained open whether any algorithm could match the static oracle's error decay rate uniformly across all problem instances. We answer this in the negative. For any K≥3 and for rewards drawn from any one-parameter natural exponential family, we show that for any algorithm, there is at least one instance where the error decay rate is at most (1+8log(K))−1 times that of the static oracle. This also answers the open question posed by Qin (2022), showing that fixed-budget best-arm identification does not admit a complexity.
We study bandit best-arm identification with arbitrary and potentially adversarial rewards. A simple random uniform learner obtains the optimal rate of error in the adversarial scenario. However, this type of strategy is suboptimal when the rewards are sampled stochastically. Therefore, we ask: Can we design a learner that performs optimally in both the stochastic and adversarial problems while not being aware of the nature of the rewards? First, we show that designing such a learner is impossible in general. In particular, to be robust to adversarial rewards, we can only guarantee optimal rates of error on a subset of the stochastic problems. We give a lower bound that characterizes the optimal rate in stochastic problems if the strategy is constrained to be robust to adversarial rewards. Finally, we design a simple parameter-free algorithm and show that its probability of error matches (up to log factors) the lower bound in stochastic problems, and it is also robust to adversarial ones.
Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori, Peter L. Bartlett, Victor Gabillon +2
We study fixed-confidence best arm identification in generalized linear bandits under a hybrid feedback model: at each round, the learner may query either (i) absolute reward feedback from a single arm or (ii) relative (dueling) feedback from an arm pair, both governed by generalized linear models. We introduce a likelihood-ratio--based confidence sequence that unifies heterogeneous generalized linear observations and yields an explicit ellipsoidal confidence set under a self-concordance assumption. Building on this confidence set, we propose a hybrid Track-and-Stop algorithm that adaptively allocates queries by tracking a minimax-optimal design over a joint action space of arms and pairs. We establish δ-correctness and provide high-probability upper bounds on the stopping time. We further extend the framework to a cost-aware setting that accounts for heterogeneous acquisition costs across feedback modalities. Empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithms significantly improve sample efficiency over baseline methods.