When Thinking Hurts: Epistemic Signals in the Reasoning Chains of Visual Language Models

Vision-language models can produce confident answers on visually ambiguous inputs, resulting in biased predictions. Common entropy-based methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE), rely on output diversity. Yet our analysis shows that overconfident visual embeddings suppress output diversity under stochastic decoding, causing SE to underestimate uncertainty in such cases. Recent methods instead probe output diversity through input perturbations, including textual paraphrasing or joint text-image perturbations, and show improved performance. We study these approaches and reveals that the resulting variability is often dominated by textual changes rather than visual evidence, causing uncertainty estimates to reflect prompt sensitivity rather than visual ambiguity. We therefore propose Visual Semantic Entropy (VSE), which perturbs only the image to probe nearby visual variations while keeping the text query fixed. VSE measures uncertainty by clustering generated answers into semantic prototypes and computing the mass-weighted dispersion among them. Extensive evaluation across five modern vision-language models and five diverse VQA benchmarks demonstrates that VSE effectively captures visual ambiguity, establishing a new state-of-the-art for VLM uncertainty estimation.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly augmented with continuous or latent non-textual tokens intended to support "visual thinking." Despite improved task accuracy, this alone does not show that models actually use these tokens for reasoning -- gains may arise from confounds such as added context length, special-token anchoring, or training-time regularization. We formalize a diagnostic principle, Ablate-to-Validate, for testing whether latent-token content is genuinely utilized, and instantiate it as the Token Replacement Test (TRT), a standardized suite of content-replacement ablations. TRT holds the prompt, image, token budget, and decoding fixed while replacing intermediate tokens with zero, random, first-repeat, or oracle alternatives, isolating whether performance depends on token content or merely on token presence. As a controlled testbed, we study relative depth reasoning with LLaVA-13B and Qwen2.5-VL-3B, training models to predict and consume continuous or discrete depth spans across multiple frozen encoders (SigLIP2, CLIP, DINOv2) and token budgets. We additionally apply TRT to three off-the-shelf visual-thinking systems (Mirage, Mull-Tokens, CoVT) on BLINK, VSP, and CV-Bench. Across all settings, accuracy gains are a misleading proxy for latent-token reasoning: VLMs retain most improvement even when token content is corrupted or replaced, revealing a persistent gap between having a latent channel and using it as an information bottleneck. We recommend TRT as a standard diagnostic alongside accuracy for any method introducing continuous thought tokens.

Vision-language models (VLMs) perform well on visual question answering with high-quality images but struggle when questions require knowledge beyond what is clearly and directly visible. In such settings, uncertainty quantification should not only indicate whether the model is likely to fail but also diagnose why it is uncertain, across dimensions such as perception, entity recognition, and knowledge retrieval. While prior work has focused on individual failure modes in isolation or treated incorrect answers as monolithic failures, we propose a unified framework for disentangling these failure modes and investigate whether pre-generation signals can predict these failure sources. Across a range of datasets and model families, we find a consistent pattern in VLM errors: some failures arise from visual or recognition bottlenecks, while others persist after the relevant entity is identified. Our main finding is that these failure sources can be predicted before decoding: recognition-related failures are best captured by visual-token representations, while failures that remain after recognition are better captured by prompt-conditioned hidden states. This pre-generation signal enables efficient failure-source prediction before the model produces an answer, allowing uncertain cases to be routed to targeted interventions such as image repair, entity recognition support, or external retrieval.