Depth-Efficient Quantum Topological Data Analysis for Regime-Specific Detection of Financial Stress

Many datasets encountered across a wide range of domains possess rich geometric and topological structure that is difficult to capture using conventional vector-based representations. Quantum machine learning offers the possibility of processing high-dimensional data in Hilbert spaces, but its practical success depends critically on how classical data is encoded into quantum states. We introduce \emph{quantum topological data encoding} (QTDE), a general framework for encoding topological information into quantum states via topology-driven quantum evolution. Our method generalises an existing topology-driven quantum encoding framework to higher-dimensional data. We test the proposed method on clique-complexes classification tasks, and provide preliminary evidence that topology-driven quantum representations can capture discriminative information beyond that available through direct comparisons of classical topological descriptors. The proposed quantum representations consistently outperform a baseline based on direct comparisons of the combinatorial Laplacians describing the underlying topological structure. We indicate several areas of application where the framework can be used to provide a more efficient and reliable data representation.

Credit default prediction is a tabular classification problem in which modest gains in F1 translate directly into reduced financial exposure. We ask whether Instantaneous Quantum Polynomial-time (IQP) circuits can produce features that improve a classifier over both its raw classical baseline and Kernel PCA - the strongest unsupervised classical non-linear alternative - at an equal feature budget. The dataset provides 23 financial attributes per client; for an n-qubit circuit we select n of them, encode each as a rotation angle, and read 2n expectation values back out as new features. The motivation for using a quantum circuit is computational: an n-qubit IQP circuit runs in constant depth and encodes feature correlations in a 2^n-dimensional Hilbert space, whereas classical simulation of its exact output statistics scales exponentially in n. Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, we find that appending 16 IQP features (n = 8 qubits) to a Logistic Regression model raises F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the next-best method, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count; the gap survives Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). No other classifier - Random Forest, SVM, XGBoost, or k-NN - benefits, which points to a linear-expressivity mechanism rather than a generic improvement. We also show that how the 8 input features are chosen matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523, while encoding maximally uncorrelated features drops it to 0.496, demonstrating that the circuit amplifies informative structure rather than creating it from scratch.

Quantum Support Vector Machine is a kernel-based approach to classification problems. We study the applicability of quantum kernels to financial data, specifically our self-curated Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEx) Broad Index dataset. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic study of quantum kernels applied to this dataset. Working within the empirical quantum advantage (EQA) framework of Krunic et al., we benchmark several quantum kernels against a classical RBF-kernel SVM baseline, propose the best-performing kernel for this dataset, and relate the observations to the Phase Space Terrain Ruggedness Index metric. We estimate the resources needed to carry out these investigations on a larger scale for future practitioners.