Silent Failures in Quantized LLM Reasoning: A Taxonomy-Based Analysis of Hollow Convergence and Failure Mode Shifts

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is widely used to deploy large language models efficiently, but its effect on reasoning models is not well understood. Across math, coding, and science QA, we find that aggressive PTQ reduces accuracy while increasing chain-of-thought (CoT) length. Surprisingly, we show that in up to 52% of the quantized models' failures, models reach the right answer in intermediate reasoning steps but do not output it as a final answer. To understand why quantization leads to this increase in overthinking errors, we measure the token-level KL divergence between quantized and full-precision output distributions. Positions with high KL divergence correlate strongly with high next-token entropy, and at these positions quantized models disproportionately sample overthinking markers such as "wait", "but", and "alternatively". We show that simply introducing a training-free logit penalty on a curated set of overthinking markers can reduce CoT length by 12--23% while preserving or improving accuracy across 5 models (1.5B-32B parameters), 3 quantization methods, and 5 benchmarks, yielding a favorable Pareto frontier of accuracy against reasoning cost compared to penalizing other token sets. Overthinking errors produced by quantized models are particularly reduced by up to 58%.

Post-training quantization is widely used to deploy large language models in resource-constrained settings, yet its evaluation relies almost exclusively on accuracy and perplexity. We show that these metrics fail to capture behavioral changes induced by quantization. We introduce correctness agreement, a decision-level metric that measures overlap in correct predictions between a base model and its quantized variants, independent of absolute accuracy. Across multiple models and quantization schemes from 8-bit to 2-bit, we find that behavioral divergence emerges under moderate quantization even when task performance appears preserved. To explain this effect, we analyze quantization as a structural operator on attention weights and quantify layer-wise distortions using statistical and distributional measures. Our results reveal non-linear breakpoints at low bit-widths and show that query and key projections are consistently more sensitive than value and output projections. These findings expose an illusion of equivalence between base and quantized models and motivate behavioral evaluation beyond conventional performance metrics.

Quantization is widely used to reduce the inference cost of large language models, but its effect on reasoning models is not fully captured by final-answer accuracy or per-token latency. We show that low-bit post-training quantization can introduce a hidden test-time compute cost: quantized reasoning models often generate longer chains of thought even when they still answer correctly. Across mathematical reasoning, code generation, scientific question answering, and agentic tool-use benchmarks, we find that INT4/INT3 quantization can preserve accuracy but increase reasoning-token usage, offsetting the expected per-token speedup. To measure this effect, we introduce the CoT Token Inflation Ratio, which compares reasoning length between quantized and full-precision models averaged across all evaluation benchmarks. We further show that token inflation is accompanied by behavioral changes in the reasoning trace, including more intermediate steps and greater semantic repetition. These changes translate into measurable end-to-end real-world serving penalties. Finally, we evaluate mitigation strategies and find that prompting and decoding-time sampling offer inconsistent accuracy-length trade-offs, while quantization-aware training shows more promise in reducing both accuracy degradation and token inflation. Our results suggest that reasoning-token usage should be reported alongside accuracy when evaluating quantized reasoning models.