Organizations: Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2136, USA · Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1107 USA
Abstract
A trained molecular property model can be refined at test time by correcting each prediction with the measured labels of the most similar training molecules, a retraining-free procedure we call neighbor fusion; evidential neural networks make it principled by using their aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to parameterize a Bayesian update. Our main contribution, PG-EVIKAL, learns a property-distance metric to re-rank structurally similar neighbors by their property relevance before fusion, building on EVIKAL (scalar Kalman filter) and GP-EVIKAL (Gaussian process variant handling correlated neighbors). Evaluated on 16 molecular datasets, PG-EVIKAL reduces RMSE relative to the evidential model baseline on 14 of them, with a median reduction of 19.4%, and improves calibration; in sequential-assay scenarios it further incorporates newly measured molecules, refining predictions as they arrive without retraining. This work demonstrates that evidential uncertainty decomposition is not merely a calibration objective but an actionable inference resource that enables test-time refinement of molecular property predictions.
Accurate molecular property prediction requires both statistical reliability and chemical reasoning. Graph neural networks can be calibrated directly on labeled assays but remain limited by the coverage of their training data. Large language models (LLMs) can compare molecular evidence and articulate chemical rationales, yet are unreliable as standalone quantitative predictors. The central challenge is therefore to determine when an LLM should influence a calibrated model and by how much. Here we present CoMPASS, a retrieval-calibrated framework for small-large model collaboration. CoMPASS retains a graph attention network (GAT) as the predictive anchor, retrieves locally relevant training molecules, provides attention-grounded evidence to an LLM, and converts its proposal into a bounded correction through an agreement-aware gate. Across six classification and two regression benchmarks, CoMPASS improves the GAT anchor in regions of correctable uncertainty while limiting LLM intervention in high-confidence regimes. Ablations show that the gains arise from validation-calibrated retrieval and bounded fusion rather than prompting alone. These results suggest that generative reasoning should augment calibrated prediction through evidence-grounded, controlled corrections rather than direct output replacement. Code is available at https://github.com/littlepeachs/CoMPASS.
Machine learning is transforming molecular sciences by accelerating property prediction, simulation, and the discovery of new molecules and materials. Acquiring labeled data in these domains is often costly and time-consuming, whereas large collections of unlabeled molecular data are readily available. Standard semi-supervised learning methods often rely on label-preserving augmentations, which are challenging to design in the molecular domain, where minor changes can drastically alter properties. In this work, we show that semi-supervised methods that rely on an ensemble consensus can boost predictive accuracy across a diverse range of molecular datasets, task types, and graph neural network architectures. We find that training with an ensemble consensus objective increases robustness in models and exhibits an effect similar to knowledge distillation; an individual member of an ensemble trained this way outperforms a full ensemble trained in a traditional supervised fashion in almost all cases. In addition, this type of semi-supervised training reduces calibration error.
Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for molecular property prediction, but their ability to reason over chemical structures remains limited, as molecular representations such as SMILES differ substantially from the natural language on which LLMs are primarily trained. To bridge this semantic and chemical knowledge gap, we propose MolE-RAG, a training-free, molecule-centric retrieval-augmented generation framework for LLM-based molecular property prediction. MolE-RAG augments each prediction with three complementary sources of inference-time context: retrieved chemistry literature, molecule-specific information including compound synonyms, identifiers, functional group annotations, and physicochemical descriptors, and structurally similar molecules retrieved from the training set. We evaluate MolE-RAG across nine molecular property prediction tasks using proprietary, chemistry-specialized, and open-source LLMs. Across general-purpose LLMs, MolE-RAG improves ROC-AUC by up to 28 percentage points on classification tasks and reduces regression RMSE by up to 67% relative to a SMILES-only baseline. We further find that the utility of each context source varies across models and tasks, with different models benefiting most from textual retrieval, molecular context, or structural retrieval. These results suggest that molecule-centric retrieval can improve LLM-based molecular property prediction without model fine-tuning while providing a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous chemical knowledge at inference time.