Confidently Wrong: Detecting Hallucinations in Financial Question Answering from LLM Internal States

LVLMs are increasingly used to read financial charts, tables, and documents, where a single misread figure can move a decision and the most authoritative-looking answer is sometimes one the model produced without reading the exhibit. The operational question is therefore trust, not accuracy: which answers can be acted on, and which escalated to a reviewer. We evaluate seven confidence estimators, three inference-only and four trained internal probes, across five open-weight LVLMs and four conditions from three financial visual question-answering benchmarks, one bilingual; every probe is trained only on natural images and applied to finance without adaptation, so the results measure out-of-distribution transfer. Three findings hold. First, the scarce property is calibration, not ranking: the inference baselines rank correct above incorrect answers competitively but are badly overconfident, calibration error far above what a threshold can tolerate, and only the trained probes produce a thresholdable score. Second, reliability is structured rather than global, along two axes a practitioner can read directly: the best estimator shifts with both model and task, none leading more than eight of twenty (model, condition) cells, and a controlled bilingual contrast exposes an apparent language robustness as a composition artifact that dissolves once models are read one at a time. Third, cast as deferral under an error budget, how much can be safely automated is set first by the model's competence and only narrowed by its confidence, so deferral clears a real share of the easiest condition and almost none of the hardest, near zero at a strict 5% budget. Two trained probes carry the calibration a deferral policy needs, and among them only the grounding-aware one lowers its confidence on answers a model gives without using the figure, separating detected non-grounding from a fluent guess.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced financial automation through Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), yet hallucinations remain a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes environments. Existing benchmarks focus on single-turn, English-centric tasks, leaving the multi-turn dynamics and linguistic-regulatory nuances of the Korean financial domain unaddressed. We introduce K-FinHallu, the first benchmark for hallucination detection in multi-turn Korean financial RAG. We construct multi-turn dialogues from authentic Korean financial documents and inject hallucinations under a proposed hierarchical taxonomy based on context answerability that explicitly accounts for justified abstention. Benchmarking frontier and open-source LLMs as hallucination detectors, we find that even the strongest models struggle with fine-grained financial diagnostics and refusal behavior. While fine-tuning an 8B model on our training split yields performance competitive with frontier LLMs, justified abstention remains the weakest axis across all evaluated models.

Financial AI systems must produce answers grounded in specific regulatory filings, yet current LLMs fabricate metrics, invent citations, and miscalculate derived quantities. These errors carry direct regulatory consequences as the EU AI Act's high-risk enforcement deadline approaches (August 2026). Existing hallucination detectors treat all claims uniformly, missing 43% of computational errors that require arithmetic re-verification against structured tables. We present FinGround, a three-stage verify-then-ground pipeline for financial document QA. Stage 1 performs finance-aware hybrid retrieval over text and tables. Stage 2 decomposes answers into atomic claims classified by a six-type financial taxonomy and verified with type-routed strategies including formula reconstruction. Stage 3 rewrites unsupported claims with paragraph- and table-cell-level citations. To cleanly isolate verification value from retrieval quality, we propose retrieval-equalized evaluation as standard methodology for RAG verification research: when all systems receive identical retrieval, FinGround still reduces hallucination rates by 68% over the strongest baseline ($p < 0.01$). The full pipeline achieves a 78% reduction relative to GPT-4o. An 8B distilled detector retains 91.4% F1 at 18x lower per-claim latency, enabling $0.003/query deployment, supported by qualitative signals from a four-week analyst pilot.