Authors: Bryan Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Johannes Schwab, Teng Andrea Xu
Organizations: Yale School of Management · AQR Capital Management · NBER · Swiss Finance Institute, EPFL · CEPR · AQR
Abstract
Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences. Point-in-time language models--trained exclusively on text available up to each calendar date--eliminate this leakage by construction, but existing efforts typically produce models that lag substantially behind their unconstrained counterparts. We show that this performance gap can be substantially narrowed through scale. Training decoder-only transformers with up to 4 billion parameters on 1 trillion chronologically filtered tokens from FineWeb, we construct a sequence of monthly model checkpoints spanning 2013-2024. Across a range of common-sense reasoning and language understanding benchmarks, our models approach the performance of leading open-weight models of comparable size (e.g., Gemma-3-4B and LLaMA-7B) trained on temporally unrestricted data, although a performance gap remains on several tasks. Instruction fine-tuning via LoRA further improves downstream usability. We release the complete pipeline--including dataset construction, training infrastructure, and evaluation code--to enable reproducible point-in-time language modeling and to support research applications that require strict temporal validity.
Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on shuffled corpora, yielding models whose knowledge is frozen at train time and whose temporal grounding remains poorly understood. In this work, we study the impact of pre-training dynamics on the acquisition of time-sensitive factual knowledge, focusing specifically on data ordering. Our main contributions are twofold. First, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark of over 7,000 temporally grounded questions and an evaluation protocol that enables analysis of whether models correctly associate facts with their corresponding time periods. Second, we pretrain 6B-parameter models on temporally ordered Common Crawl snapshots and compare them against standard shuffled pre-training. Our results show that sequentially trained models match shuffled baselines on general language understanding and common knowledge while consistently exhibiting more up-to-date and temporally precise knowledge. Temporally ordered pre-training yields improved factual freshness, while shuffled pre-training peaks on older data, possibly due to increased factual repetition. These findings, along with the release of our code at https://github.com/kyutai-labs/kairos , checkpoints, and datasets at https://huggingface.co/collections/kyutai/kairos provide a foundation for future research on continual learning for LLMs.
Large language models (LLMs) often fail to reason under temporal cutoffs: when prompted to answer from the standpoint of an earlier time, they exploit knowledge that became available only later. We study this failure through the lens of ex-ante reasoning, where a model must rely exclusively on information knowable before a cutoff. Through a systematic analysis of prompt-level interventions, we find that temporal leakage is highly sensitive to cutoff formulation and instruction placement: explicit cutoff statements outperform implicit historical framings, and prefix constraints reduce leakage more effectively than suffix constraints. These findings indicate that prompting can steer models into a temporal frame, but does not endow them with the ability to verify whether a response is temporally admissible. We further argue that supervised fine-tuning is insufficient, since ex-ante correctness is not an intrinsic property of an answer, but a relation between the answer and the cutoff. To address this gap, we propose TCFT, a Temporal Critique Fine-Tuning framework that trains models to acquire cutoff-aware temporal verification. Given a query, a cutoff, and a candidate response, TCFT teaches the model to identify post-cutoff leakage, explain temporal boundary violations, and judge temporal admissibility. Experiments with Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct show that TCFT consistently outperforms prompting and SFT baselines, reducing average leakage by 41.89 and 37.79 percentage points, respectively.
Interpretability is often treated as a tax on capability: language models are trained as opaque systems, then explained after the fact, with methods whose reliability is difficult to establish. In this work, we challenge this premise. Rather than reverse-engineering a model, we make interpretability a constraint of the training pipeline, optimized alongside the language modeling objective. Across three orders of magnitude of compute, on both autoregressive and diffusion language models, interpretability scales with capability rather than against it. Surprisingly, model representations become more disentangled and aligned with human-understandable concepts with scale. We instantiate the training-time recipe with Steerling-8B, a diffusion language model with a causal attention mask. For any group of generated tokens, Steerling-8B attributes the output to relevant input tokens, human-understandable concepts, and training data. This enables closed-loop intervention: diagnose an output through its concept or feature attribution, retrieve similar training data, and correct the behavior through concept steering without retraining. Steerling-8B remains competitive with open peer models trained on substantially 2-16x more compute, suggesting a different scaling paradigm: interpretability can be designed into training, and it improves with scale.
Guide Labs Team, Andreas Madsen, Aya Abdelsalam Ismail +7