Contrasting statistical patterns in melodic and molecular evolution reveal distinctive constraints in a culturally evolving system

Music comprises two core structural components, melody and rhythm, that vary widely across cultures. Whether these components coevolve in a coupled way or follow independent trajectories remains unclear. We introduce a novel computational pipeline to extract vocal melodic pitch-interval and percussive inter-onset timing distributions from 27,628 popular songs across 59 countries, enabling large-scale cross-cultural comparison that bypasses traditional music annotations. Musical similarities between countries aligned with geographic and linguistic relationships, validating our approach. Substantial variation emerged in both melodic and rhythmic structures across countries, yet the diversity of the two components was not significantly correlated, challenging assumptions of coupled evolution. Only rhythmic diversity was significantly associated with ethnic and linguistic heterogeneity, while melodic diversity showed no such association. These findings suggest that melody and rhythm constitute partially independent systems shaped by distinct cultural and evolutionary pressures, rather than components of a single monolithic musical style.

How cultural repertoires maintain diversity under selection is a fundamental question in cultural evolution. We address this using thirteen years of weekly popularity data for approximately 20,000 Irish traditional tunes, fitting ecological birth-process models under neutral, frequency-dependent, and per-tune selection hypotheses. We find strong evidence that tunes differ in intrinsic fitness - some are systematically more likely to be learned than others. We find that 29% of the variance in fitness can be explained by a mixture of social and melodic features. Some tunes appear to be carried along via linkage due to the tradition of playing tunes in sets, analogous to selective sweeps in genetics. By measuring changes in fitness over time and comparing this with recordings we precisely identify the mechanism by which a long-dormant tune can become fit through a popular recording. Despite the directional selection, repertoire diversity increases, driven by the continual arrival of new compositions. These results demonstrate that selection and diversity can coexist in a cultural ecosystem, and establish Irish traditional music as a quantitatively tractable system for studying the evolution of cultural variants and understanding what makes a tune stand out.

Since antiquity, musical scales have been explained by harmony rather than melody. This view relies on the mathematically designed scales of a few traditions, and was never directly tested. Testing it requires cross-cultural data and a method that judges theories by what they get wrong as well as right. We provide both, modelling scale evolution across 1,314 scales from 96 countries. A Melody model explains the near-universal preference for step-sizes of 1-3 semitones, and matches independent data from melodies, singing, and psychoacoustics. Harmony does far less: it explains the music-theoretic scales, but in those measured from performance it adds only a weak bias towards fourths, fifths, and octaves. Harmony's importance has been overstated, likely due to the historical focus on music-theoretic rather than measured scales. Melody is the primary driver of global scale structure; harmonic constraints are less impactful and mainly reflect musicological theory over musical performance.