PlumeQuant: Uncertainty-aware consistency assessment of methane plume masks and emission-rate estimates

Automated detection and masking of individual methane plumes from satellite imagery is important for operational emission attribution and quantification. We present a machine learning framework for plume detection from MethaneSAT retrieved column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of methane. We address two core challenges: the scarcity of labeled MethaneSAT data and the need for inference reliability across diverse atmospheric and surface conditions. We first demonstrate that Mask R-CNN with a ResNet-50 backbone outperforms U-Net semantic segmentation on both MethaneAIR (an airborne version of MethaneSAT) and MethaneSAT data, with pixel-level F1 score gains of 10.49 and 5.48 respectively. To address MethaneSAT data scarcity, we evaluate three cross-sensor transfer strategies leveraging MethaneAIR flights and synthetic plumes. Mask R-CNN with ResNet-50 fine-tuned from MethaneAIR pre-trained weights is the most effective strategy, achieving instance-level precision of 0.60 and a near-perfect recall of 0.98 at the baseline operating point. A physics-informed post-processing pipeline converts detections into two operationally distinct modes. The first is a high-sensitivity mode that applies morphological filtering and proximity-based merging for comprehensive emission screening, achieving precision of 0.71 and recall of 0.94. The second is a high-precision mode that additionally applies a distribution-based classifier for confident source attribution, achieving precision of 0.92 and recall of 0.70. Manual review of detections classified as false positives against our wavelet-based ground truth labels reveals that a meaningful fraction of cases correspond to real methane enhancements excluded by conservative labeling criteria, indicating that precision values reported are lower bounds on true detection performance... Our data and code are available at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FR959H

Methane plume detection from satellite imagery is constrained by incomplete observations: public satellites provide complementary spatial, spectral, and atmospheric evidence, but real plume cases rarely contain fully paired multi-sensor measurements because of revisit schedules, cloud coverage, acquisition quality, and the transient nature of emissions. Most learning-based detectors rely on single-sensor inputs, especially Sentinel-2 (S2), leaving many reported plume cases unusable. We construct MethaneUnion, a temporal multi-sensor dataset built from Carbon Mapper plume reports and matched S2, Landsat 8/9 (L8/9), EMIT, and Sentinel-5P (S5P) observations. Built on MethaneUnion, MethaneFuse learns from heterogeneous satellite observations under partial sensor availability without requiring complete four-sensor measurements. MethaneUnion expands usable coverage from 3,211 valid S2-matched plume cases to 8,981 reported plume cases with multi-sensor observations. At the representative 480 m setting, MethaneFuse achieves 84.87 F1 and 93.62 AUROC, improving over the strongest baseline by 5.65 F1 and 8.30 AUROC points while reducing false positives by 8.19 points. Sensor-availability experiments show that MethaneFuse improves detection when S2 is available and transfers plume knowledge to L8/9, EMIT, and S5P when S2 is unavailable. These results demonstrate the value of learning from incomplete heterogeneous sensor observations for practical methane plume detection.

Continuous and global detection of large methane emissions is a crucial step for global warming mitigation. Satellite observations, such as from S5P/TROPOMI, combined with plume detection algorithms, can play a key role in this effort. However, not all TROPOMI plume detections that look like methane emission plumes are the result of actual emissions. A significant part of the plume-like features in the data are retrieval artifacts. Such artifacts could be the result of variations in elevation or albedo gradients, high concentrations of aerosols, coastal lines, water bodies, etc. Previous work approached the problem of plume-artifact classification by means of a Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVC), trained on an extensive set of observation-based scalar features designed by domain experts. However, such an approach limits the information scope received by the algorithm to what is deemed to be important by the experts, breaks the spatial relationship between pixels, and loses information during the process of statistical aggregation. In this study, we compare feature-based (SVC, Random Forest, XGBoost) and image-based (ResNet-18, ResNet-34) models for methane plume-artifact classification under balanced and imbalanced evaluation settings. To interpret the results, we apply SHAP-based explainability to both model families. Our findings provide practical guidance for model selection in operational methane-screening workflows such as the CAMS Methane Hotspot Explorer.