Signal-based Model Access Risk Analysis for AI System Operations Security
Authors: Maria Mahbub, Steven Young, Amir Sadovnik, Edmon Begoli, Chris Rugenstein, Donald Coulter, Anthony Ayodele
Organizations: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA · Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA · DHS Science and Technology Directorate, Washington, DC 20528, USA
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems are now ubiquitous across domains such as security, finance, healthcare, consumer technology, and large-scale cloud services, where they process massive volumes of data and make consequential decisions daily. This widespread adoption has created a broad attack surface through which adversaries can manipulate, evade, extract information from, or otherwise subvert deployed models. Depending on system design and exposure, attackers may have very different forms of access: some observe only final decisions, while others receive confidence scores, intermediate representations, or even full model parameters. While previous surveys typically organize evasion attacks into white-box, gray-box, and black-box categories based on the attacker's knowledge of model internals (architecture, parameters, gradients), this taxonomy often conflates different deployment scenarios that provide vastly different output signals, all labeled as ``black-box'' despite enabling fundamentally different attack strategies. Understanding how evasion attack strategies adapt to the specific information signals returned by deployed systems is critical for organizations making procurement and deployment decisions. To address this gap, we introduce the Signal-based Model Access Risk Taxonomy (SMART), a deployment-oriented framework that classifies attacker access according to the nature and richness of the information signals available from deployed AI systems. Using this taxonomy, we provide a structured overview of evasion attacks across progressively richer levels of information exposure, highlighting how deployment interfaces influence attack capabilities and informing more secure AI deployment and procurement decisions.
Agentic systems are rapidly moving to production, where they read untrusted inputs, call tools with real permissions, and act autonomously, expanding the security surface beyond chat-only models. Yet standard evaluations remain single-turn and fail to capture multi-step agent vulnerabilities. We present a systematic black-box framework for risk-aware agent evaluation requiring only basic system descriptions. Our approach introduces: (1) a seven-domain taxonomy mapping observable behaviors to risk categories, (2) fully automated SAGE-RT red teaming producing 120 adversarial scenarios per domain, and (3) human-validated evaluation using LLM judges. Empirical validation across two agent architectures (CrewAI and AutoGen) with four base models reveals alarming patterns: 56.25% average governance risk, 65% privacy risk in multi-agent configurations, and agent behavior vulnerabilities reaching 85%. Our black-box approach effectively identifies critical architectural vulnerabilities without privileged access, providing a scalable path toward safer agent deployments.
LLMs are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents with access to tools, databases, and external services, yet practitioners (across different sectors) lack systematic methods to assess how known threat classes translate into concrete risks within a specific agentic deployment. We present MATRA, a pragmatic threat modeling framework for agentic AI systems that adapts established risk assessment methodology to systematically assess how known LLM threats translate into deployment-specific risks. MATRA begins with an asset-based impact assessment and utilizes attack trees to determine the likelihood of these impacts occurring within the system architecture. We demonstrate MATRA on a personal AI agent deployment using OpenClaw, quantifying how architectural controls such as network sandboxing and least-privilege access reduce risk by limiting the blast radius of successful injections.
Tim Van hamme, Thomas Vissers, Javier Carnerero-Cano +4
As artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly deployed across critical domains, their security vulnerabilities pose growing risks of high-profile exploits and consequential system failures. Yet systematic approaches to evaluating AI security remain underdeveloped. In this paper, we introduce AVISE (AI Vulnerability Identification and Security Evaluation), a modular open-source framework for identifying vulnerabilities in and evaluating the security of AI systems and models. As a demonstration of the framework, we extend the theory-of-mind-based multi-turn Red Queen attack into an Adversarial Language Model (ALM) augmented attack and develop an automated Security Evaluation Test (SET) for discovering jailbreak vulnerabilities in language models. The SET comprises 25 test cases and an Evaluation Language Model (ELM) that determines whether each test case was able to jailbreak the target model, achieving 92% accuracy, an F1-score of 0.91, and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.83. We evaluate nine recently released language models of diverse sizes with the SET and find that all are vulnerable to the augmented Red Queen attack to varying degrees. AVISE provides researchers and industry practitioners with an extensible foundation for developing and deploying automated SETs, offering a concrete step toward more rigorous and reproducible AI security evaluation.