GeneSpeak-FP: Target and Compound Retrieval from Observed Cell-Level Perturbation Signatures

Predicting transcriptomic responses to small-molecule perturbations across cell lines is central to drug discovery, but exhaustive profiling of drug-cell combinations is infeasible. We frame molecular perturbation prediction as retrieve-and-aggregate: approximate an unmeasured drug's response in a cell line by aggregating measured responses of a small set of biologically related compounds. We propose LLM-Guided Retrieval (LGR), where a large language model (LLM) ranks candidate neighbor drugs (restricted to those profiled in the target cell line); after which a fixed mean aggregator combines their observed expression deltas to form the prediction. We evaluate on the Tahoe-100M single-cell perturbation atlas under unseen-drug, unseen-cell-line, and open-world regimes. LGR consistently improves over drug mean, ChemCPA, and chemistry-based kNN baselines, with the strongest gains for unseen cell-line generalization, where it achieves higher correlation and lower error than mean baselines. Across settings, LGR improves directional (sign) accuracy of gene regulation, indicating better recovery of biologically meaningful perturbation effects even when magnitude-based metrics are similar. These results suggest that retrieval quality, rather than predictor complexity, is a key driver of zero-shot molecular perturbation prediction, and that LLMs can provide a useful biological prior when used as constrained retrieval modules.

Predicting how a cell's transcriptome responds to a drug it has never seen is a core, hard problem in computational cell biology: recent benchmarks show complex models often fail to beat trivial baselines once test compounds are held out by chemistry. We study one cell line and assay, THP-1 cells profiled by DRUG-seq, scored by the active-compound weighted MSE(wMSE) of the VCPI prediction contest. We propose a staged approach: dumb baselines (untreated control and mean training-compound response) that the field keeps failing to beat; non-parametric retrieval (a Tanimoto-weighted average of a held-out compound's nearest training compounds); and a fusion stage combining a frozen chemistry embedding with retrieval-support features to predict the residual over the mean, with an uncertainty head and gene programs. On the released VCPI THP-1 drug-seq data (14,026 training compounds), under a Bemis-Murcko scaffold split, the model ranking inverts depending on the metric. Under an inverse-variance per-gene proxy, a regularized linear regression on Morgan fingerprints appears to win over the deep models, retrieval, and ChemBERTa -- the textbook "simple baselines win" result. But under the contest's true active-set metric (per-(gene, compound) Mejia weights, validated against the official scorer; mean baseline 0.535 vs the organizers' 0.507 reference), that reverses: the deep models win, our fusion decoder significantly beats the linear fingerprint baseline (-0.012 wMSE, paired bootstrap p < 10^-4), and the proxy's winner becomes the worst chemistry-aware predictor. Picking the metric picks the winner -- to our knowledge the first demonstration on real held-out drug chemistry of the metric-calibration effect established largely on genetic perturbation. We release a reproducible pipeline wired to the official scorer that emits a valid submission over the real 1064 x 12,995 grid.

Virtual-cell and perturbation models are increasingly used to predict cellular responses for biomedical discovery, but chemical and genetic perturbations are not automatically interchangeable. Existing evaluations often study chemical response prediction or genetic perturbation prediction separately, leaving target-matched chemical-to-genetic translation under-tested. We introduce Chem2Gen-Bench, a benchmark comprising 260,084 chemical and 1,099,045 genetic perturbation profiles organized into cell-target contexts, and evaluate pairwise alignment, retrieval, protocol covariate associations, feature spaces, and foundation-model embeddings. Across matched contexts, translation fidelity is measurable but heterogeneous; background adjustment increases the association between pairwise similarity and retrieval success, while paired tests show lower mean retrieval success after adjustment under the evaluated settings. In a target-matched K562 audit, the evaluated foundation-model embeddings did not consistently improve over gene-delta baselines. Chem2Gen-Bench provides an auditable framework for testing when chemical and genetic perturbations align around shared targets and when representation gains are supported by matched perturbation evidence.