Closed-Loop Generative Selection: Convergence, Memory, and Noisy Oracles
Authors: Konstantin Fackeldey, Christof Schütte
Organizations: Zuse Institute Berlin, Takustraße 7, 14195 Berlin, Germany · Institute for Mathematics, Technical University Berlin, Fasanenstr 89,10623 Berlin, Germany · Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimallee 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany
Closed-loop generative selection has become a workhorse of computational drug discovery: a learned generative model proposes candidate molecules, a fitness oracle scores them, the best are kept, and the model is retrained on this elite set before the next round. Despite its wide use, the method has lacked a rigorous convergence theory, largely because retraining the model each round breaks the Markov property on which classical evolutionary-algorithm analysis relies. We develop a self-contained theory of convergence and expected running time for this class of algorithms. By recovering a Markov structure on an enlarged state space, we show that elitism makes the search absorbing, and we prove almost-sure convergence together with a runtime bound that decomposes the search into the time spent escaping each fitness level. We then analyse the role of the model's memory---how much of the past it is trained on. When learning improves steadily with more data, deeper memory never hurts; when it does not, an exit-time analysis pinpoints the optimal memory depth and shows that excess memory can actually slow convergence. The theory extends to multi-objective search and to noisy oracles: we quantify how many repeated evaluations certify progress under light-tailed noise, and how robust estimators restore guarantees under heavy tails. Recast in terms of oracle evaluations - the true bottleneck in drug design - the analysis yields a concrete, evaluation-minimal strategy. Areproducible study confirms the predictions, including the surprising cost of excess memory. We close with three open problems.
Molecular optimization in drug discovery, materials design, and catalysis requires searching vast chemical spaces under tight evaluation budgets, since high-fidelity oracles and experimental measurements are costly. The practical impact of an optimization method therefore hinges on its sample efficiency: how few evaluations it needs to find strong candidates. We introduce Sample Efficient Generative Optimization (SEGO), a framework for Bayesian optimization on adaptively generated molecules. In SEGO, a probabilistic surrogate model forms a hypothesis about where hits lie in chemical space, a generative model is steered to propose candidates in that region, the most promising candidate is selected via an acquisition function, and the resulting oracle call is used both to sharpen the surrogate and to anchor the generator in real reward. SEGO attains state-of-the-art performance on the practical molecular optimization (PMO) benchmark using only one tenth of the oracle calls consumed by other methods, and on a multiparameter docking task it reaches ten hits in roughly half the oracle calls of existing approaches. These gains move molecular optimization closer to campaigns driven by direct experimental feedback.
Scientific discovery often involves optimising expensive-to-evaluate objectives over vast, structured, and open-ended hypothesis spaces, such as molecules, protein sequences, and computer programs. Generative models such as large language models (LLMs) provide expressive priors over such spaces, but their likelihoods and self-assessments are unreliable proxies for the objectives and calibrated epistemic uncertainty, especially for novel candidates outside the observed data distribution. We introduce the Large Discovery Model (LDM), an empirically grounded recurrent architecture that couples a generative model with a Bayesian non-parametric reward surrogate model. The generative model proposes and refines candidate designs, while the surrogate predicts their performance and quantifies uncertainty, yielding an uncertainty-aware value that guides candidate generation, refinement, and selection. The discovery memory and the surrogate model are continually updated as each new experimental observation arrives. We evaluate LDM on three scenarios spanning different design modalities and objectives, including neural-network training, antibody design, and molecular optimisation. Compared to LLM-only reflection or traditional statistical search across these domains, LDM achieves a 2.4× greater reduction in validation BPB, an 18.2% relative decrease in binding energy, and more than 60% relative gains in molecular multi-objective performance. These results suggests that LDM could serve as a general-purpose discovery engine for effective search over open-ended hypothesis spaces.
Molecular optimization is commonly performed under a limited oracle budget, which makes deciding what to evaluate as important as deciding what to generate. We introduce short-term graph memory, a plug-in module that preserves the generator architecture and native update rule while learning from previously evaluated molecules to prioritize subsequent oracle queries. The module maintains an online graph neural surrogate that pre-screens each round's candidate pool, so the fixed oracle budget is spent on molecules with higher predicted utility. Applied to a fragment-based generator on a standard molecular optimization benchmark, it improves the mean top-10 score at no extra oracle cost and never falls behind the base on any oracle; the gain extends to all four generators we tested at a tight budget of one thousand calls. We then analyze how surrogate-guided selection interacts with the exploration and exploitation behavior of different generators. Its benefit at larger budgets is consistent with two properties of the backbone: how broadly it searches, and how effectively its native search already exploits oracle feedback. We provide a simple way to spend a fixed oracle budget more selectively, and evidence on which generators benefit from it.