Lottery Tickets Are Not Deployment Tickets

The lottery ticket hypothesis posits that dense networks contain sparse subnetworks, ``winning tickets,'' that, when rewound to their initial weights and retrained in isolation, match the performance of the full model. We ask a more mechanistic question: what internal object does a winning ticket preserve? We work in a combinatorial, clause-structured toy setting that admits an interpretable feature-space representation with well-defined combinatorial distances between features. We show that winning tickets in weight space correspond to precursor locations in feature space that are already near, at initialization, to the final feature-channel codes. Dense SGD resolves these locations through structured selection: proximal locations either converge to final codes or are rejected, with rejection concentrated at more crowded neurons, implicating competition under superposition. A winning ticket is thus a family of compatible code locations that jointly balance proximity to final codes with low inter-feature interference. Sparse retraining often re-expresses the same clause/template family on a different row, so the preserved object is family-level rather than microscopic row identity. We validate this account with lightweight probes based on feature-space distance and motion; in our setting, these probes frequently outperform established weight-based ticket discovery methods in both accuracy and exact code recovery. Although these findings are grounded in a toy setting, they suggest that the lottery ticket structure is governed by hidden feature-space geometry rather than weight-space subnetwork identity.

Many high-stakes AI deployments proceed only if every stakeholder deems the system acceptable relative to their own minimum standard. With randomization over a finite menu of options, this becomes a feasibility question: does there exist a lottery over options that clears all stakeholders' acceptability bars? We study a query model where the algorithm proposes lotteries and receives only binary accept/reject feedback. We give deterministic and randomized algorithms that either find a unanimously acceptable lottery or certify infeasibility; adaptivity can avoid eliciting many stakeholders' constraints, and randomization further reduces the expected elicitation cost relative to full elicitation. We complement these upper bounds with worst-case lower bounds (in particular, linear dependence on the number of stakeholders and logarithmic dependence on precision are unavoidable). Finally, we develop learning-augmented algorithms that exploit natural forms of advice (e.g., likely binding stakeholders or a promising lottery), improving query complexity when predictions are accurate while preserving worst-case guarantees.

Certified selective predictors attain whatever coverage they attain; operators impose an automation floor: answer at least a $β$-fraction of shifted target traffic with at most an $α$-fraction of answers wrong. Under bounded-ratio covariate shift we prove the Floor Certification Map: once that floor must be certified alongside the selection-conditioned risk $α$, certification acquires a feasibility frontier and a two-resource complexity map, additive up to constants: risk in labeled source, the floor in unlabeled target samples. The rates are local, needing a regular frontier margin, slack below the local-regime threshold, and lattice conditions: pre-registered with a lattice margin for the upper bounds, compatible per-slack for the lower. The displayed split is the operational route; oracle weights also allow a labeled-source floor estimate. Three model-tagged results: a lower bound (Model-B), a matching oracle-weight upper bound (Model-A), and an implementable upper bound (Model-B') valid under a pre-registered exact stratified-shift model with nuisance cost priced explicitly. The match is across these models rather than a single-model minimax theorem, and necessarily so: over the full bounded-ratio class no unknown-weight procedure matches at any sample size (Model-B is inconsistent, witnessed at $α=β=1/2$). The nuisance's necessity is only partially settled. Complexity tracks a localized accepted-region functional, not global effective sample size (ESS), on both sides, though a fixed-ESS separation theorem is left open; both lower-bound axes vanish as $β\to0$, so the floor creates the map. Empirically, the registered bite family diverges with log-log slope $-2.002$ within its pre-registered band; a 1,024-cell audit records 0 violations where the formal certificates fire; and a single-corpus SQuAD-to-NewsQA feasibility audit returns honest refusal.