An Instrument to Evaluate Governance Proposals: AI Policy Analysis at Scale
Authors: Paulo Carvao, Claudio Mayrink Verdun, Isabel Adler, Jeffrey Zhou
Organizations: Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government · Harvard Kennedy School · Harvard Kennedy School of Government · School of Engineering and Applied Sciences., Harvard University · Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University
Abstract
This paper introduces a policy analysis framework for systematic, transparent assessment of AI governance proposals in an evolving and contested regulatory landscape. AI policy debates often collapse into binary positions that obscure underlying tradeoffs and normative assumptions. The framework structures policy analysis around multiple policy attributes, allowing users to surface priorities and tensions without prescribing outcomes. We use a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative insights from subject matter experts with computational text analysis to inform the design of policy attribute rubrics. This quantifies the relative emphasis of different policy objectives and presents them through comparative visualizations that support interpretability and cross-policy comparison. The paper also examines the use of commercial LLMs for rubric-based policy analysis, benchmarking their outputs against a domain-trained rubric-calibrated model with explicitly defined analytical assumptions. Rather than assessing policy effectiveness or desirability, the framework focuses on relevance and alignment across attributes. By making analytical assumptions explicit, including attribute selection, rubric construction, and weighting schemes, the framework enables users to evaluate whether its embedded priorities align with the users' own normative commitments. The approach is jurisdiction-agnostic and intended to support policymakers, analysts, and researchers navigating complex AI governance environments. Contributions: (1) multidimensional policy assessment through empirically grounded rubrics that surface tradeoffs rather than resolving them; (2) a transparent hybrid methodology combining feedback from subject-matter experts with computational validation; and (3) use of domain-trained rubric-calibrated models as a benchmark for comparing different general-purpose large language models.
As the rapid proliferation of AI systems and harms spurs efforts in AI governance around the world, prioritizing among competing policy options has become increasingly challenging for policymakers and researchers. We introduce a methodology for identifying viable policy options to mitigate specified AI harms, helping policymakers and researchers target areas that warrant greater time and resource investment. This method combines participatory evaluation of policies, expert assessment of implementation costs, and an LLM-based assessment of perceived harm mitigation under each policy option. We leverage a genetic algorithm-based simulation study to explore a vast solution space of potential policy combinations, and examine how outcomes change under different weightings of cost, participatory input, and harm mitigation. We find that this method enables exploration of different balances between participatory and expert components, allowing policymakers and researchers to assess how much weight to assign to each. We argue that the diversity of viable policy combinations found by the genetic algorithm could be a useful starting point for deliberation. This method operationalizes existing work on participatory AI by integrating it directly into practical policy development pipelines.
Julia Barnett, Kimon Kieslich, Natali Helberger +1
AI governance programmes increasingly rely on natural language prompts to constrain and direct AI agent behaviour. These prompts function as executable specifications: they define the agent's mandate, scope, and quality criteria. Despite this role, no systematic framework exists for evaluating whether a governance prompt is structurally complete. We introduce a five-principle evaluation framework grounded in computability theory, proof theory, and Bayesian epistemology, and apply it to an empirical corpus of 34 publicly available AGENTS.md governance files sourced from GitHub. Our evaluation reveals that 37% of evaluated file-model pairs score below the structural completeness threshold, with data classification and assessment rubric criteria most frequently absent. These results suggest that practitioner-authored governance prompts exhibit consistent structural patterns that automated static analysis could detect and remediate. We discuss implications for requirements engineering practice in AI-assisted development contexts, identify a previously undocumented artefact classification gap in the AGENTS.md convention, and propose directions for tool support.
Content moderation systems are typically evaluated by measuring agreement with human labels. In rule-governed environments this assumption fails: multiple decisions may be logically consistent with the governing policy, and agreement metrics penalize valid decisions while mischaracterizing ambiguity as error -- a failure mode we term the Agreement Trap. We formalize evaluation as policy-grounded correctness and introduce the Defensibility Index (DI) and Ambiguity Index (AI). To estimate reasoning stability without additional audit passes, we introduce the Probabilistic Defensibility Signal (PDS), derived from audit-model token logprobs. We harness LLM reasoning traces as a governance signal rather than a classification output by deploying the audit model not to decide whether content violates policy, but to verify whether a proposed decision is logically derivable from the governing rule hierarchy. We validate the framework on 193,000+ Reddit moderation decisions across multiple communities and evaluation cohorts, finding a 33-46.6 percentage-point gap between agreement-based and policy-grounded metrics, with 79.8-80.6% of the model's false negatives corresponding to policy-grounded decisions rather than true errors. We further show that measured ambiguity is driven by rule specificity: auditing 37,286 identical decisions under three tiers of the same community rules reduces AI by 10.8 pp while DI remains stable. Repeated-sampling analysis attributes PDS variance primarily to governance ambiguity rather than decoding noise. A Governance Gate built on these signals achieves 78.6% automation coverage with 64.9% risk reduction. Together, these results show that evaluation in rule-governed environments should shift from agreement with historical labels to reasoning-grounded validity under explicit rules.