Benchmarking Frontier Large Language Models Against Official Crash Database Coding Using Police Crash Narratives

Suicide is a leading cause of death in the United States, and understanding the circumstances that precede it requires extracting structured information from death investigation narratives. Many of these circumstances require semantic inference beyond simple keyword matching. We develop a ``Complexity Score'' algorithm that analyzes coding manual structure to predict when detailed prompts with full coding guidelines improve over name-only prompts. We then construct a hybrid approach that selects prompt strategy per circumstance. We evaluate large language models (LLMs) against fine-tuned RoBERTa on 25 inferentially complex circumstances from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). We found that LLMs substantially outperform on low-prevalence circumstances where training data is insufficient. We further demonstrate that our framework generalizes across frontier LLMs, with GPT-5.2, Gemini 2.5 Pro and Llama-3 70B showing consistent performance patterns. These findings support a hybrid architecture where LLMs handle rare, inferentially complex circumstances while fine-tuned models handle common ones.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly described as performing at the level of human experts on knowledge economy tasks. These claims are primarily based on how LLMs perform on benchmarking tasks that measure average performance across standardized datasets. Primary limitations of many benchmarking tasks are that they often measure performance based on content directly included in LLM training data, and they frequently do not assess the reliability of LLM performance or the magnitude of LLM errors. However, in high stakes contexts, these qualities are critically important. Through a novel LLM benchmarking task that requires writing computer code to complete a data analysis task, we compare the performance of a frontier LLM against submissions from human experts and explicitly measure the variance of responses and the magnitude of errors. Our study reveals that the human experts perform better on average on a range of metrics and demonstrate less variability in performance. Our results provide evidence that LLMs do not consistently perform at the level of human experts and demonstrate the importance of measuring variance and assessing error magnitude in LLM benchmark evaluations.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into high-stakes public safety systems, including emergency call triage and dispatch decision support, yet their demographic fairness in this context remains largely untested. Here we introduce a cross-lingual audit framework that operationalizes the Police Priority Dispatch System as a five-level ordinal classification task and applies a controlled minimal-pair design to isolate the effect of demographic cues. Across 19,800 model outputs spanning 11 frontier models, 15 scenario pairs, three demographic categories (religious appearance, gender, and race), and two languages (English and Mandarin Chinese), we find that demographic bias emerges systematically when incident severity is ambiguous but largely disappears when the operational priority is clearly determined by call content. Bias magnitude varies by demographic axis, with the largest effects observed for religious appearance, followed by gender and race. Critically, bias does not transfer consistently across languages: gender bias is substantially amplified in Mandarin Chinese, whereas race bias is more pronounced in English, revealing cross-lingual asymmetries that aggregate analyses obscure. In several scenarios, demographic cues produce counter-directional effects, challenging simple stereotype-amplification accounts of model behavior. These findings suggest that bias in LLM-based dispatch is not a fixed property of models alone, but arises from the interaction between demographic signals, contextual ambiguity, and language. Beyond these empirical results, the proposed framework provides a scalable audit infrastructure that enables deploying agencies to evaluate candidate models on jurisdiction-relevant scenarios prior to real-world adoption.