An Identifiability Theory of Masked Prediction: Mode Blindness and Mask Schedules

Restricting what a module can read may improve what a system learns to compute. We test this in a preregistered confirmation with sixty four-cell systems sharing a frozen language-model backbone and communicating through learned continuous packets. Five conditions vary evidence masking, ownership markers, and replacement of foreign evidence with neutral filler (task-irrelevant text of the same token length), across six initialization clusters, each with two data orders, on one fresh task world. With markers available in both regimes, masking improved accuracy on held-out two- and three-operation compositions by median paired differences of 0.846 and 0.859; all twelve pairs cleared the required margins, and the full preregistered behavioral criterion passed. The unmarked replication also passed. No marked global-visibility (G+) system passed the marker-following check, so the effect of usable role information remains unresolved. The filler condition yielded seven full generalizers, but its decomposition criteria were inconclusive. Packet interventions in all eighteen audited masked systems followed the predicted intermediate-value changes on eligible cases; these finite, success-conditioned audits do not establish mediation. The results confirm a large advantage of the tested masking regime, while leaving its finer attribution and generality open. Protocols, results, and checkpoints are public.

Masked diffusion language models (MDMs) uniquely support any-order generation, with confidence-based decoding currently serving as the de facto standard inference policy. To optimize for this, recent training schemes attempt to align training mask patterns directly with those observed during generation. However, we argue that confidence-based decoding is inherently misaligned with the logical-flow trajectories required for complex reasoning, and that confidence-aligned training actively entrenches this misalignment. We make this concrete using multi-digit addition, where the decoding strategy prematurely predicts locally easy digits before resolving their long-range dependencies, producing high-confidence errors on challenging inputs. While traditional random masking keeps the failure rate low on this challenging tail, confidence-aligned training amplifies the error rate by an order of magnitude. Across five distinct reasoning tasks, this same pattern emerges with task-dependent severity: confidence-based decoding induces failures on highly complex inputs, and confidence-aligned training exacerbates them. In contrast, random masking -- despite its perceived inefficiency -- robustly preserves the reasoning-trajectory conditionals essential for solving the challenging tail.

Masking-based post-hoc explanation methods, such as KernelSHAP and LIME, estimate local feature importance by querying a black-box model under randomized perturbations. This paper formulates this procedure as communication over a query channel, where the latent explanation acts as a message and each masked evaluation is a channel use. Within this framework, the complexity of the explanation is captured by the entropy of the hypothesis class, while the query interface supplies information at a rate determined by an identification capacity per query. We derive a strong converse showing that, if the explanation rate exceeds this capacity, the probability of exact recovery necessarily converges to one in error for any sequence of explainers and decoders. We also prove an achievability result establishing that a sparse maximum-likelihood decoder attains reliable recovery when the rate lies below capacity. A Monte Carlo estimator of mutual information yields a non-asymptotic query benchmark that we use to compare optimal decoding with Lasso- and OLS-based procedures that mirror LIME and KernelSHAP. Experiments reveal a range of query budgets where information theory permits reliable explanations but standard convex surrogates still fail. Finally, we interpret super-pixel resolution and tokenization for neural language models as a source-coding choice that sets the entropy of the explanation and show how Gaussian noise and nonlinear curvature degrade the query channel, induce waterfall and error-floor behavior, and render high-resolution explanations unattainable.