Computing with Agentic Oracles

The Stochastic-Oracle Turing Machine (SOTM) framework models AI-augmented computation as the interaction of a probabilistic Turing machine with an oracle whose responses are drawn from context-dependent distributions. This paper studies what an SOTM can achieve under two oracle-response schemes: in a cached-response oracle, each distinct query receives one response that is reused on later calls to the same query, while in a fresh-response oracle, each call returns an independent response. In both schemes, the SOTM first computes from its input and internal random source to generate its first query, then proceeds adaptively, computing from its query-response transcript (the record of queries issued and responses received) to generate each subsequent query or produce a final output. Cached responses impose two transcript-based ceilings on achievable performance: a correct-identification ceiling governed by the total variation distance between the transcript distributions induced by the hidden states of the oracle, and an output quality ceiling equal to the expected score of the best output the SOTM can compute from the transcript. Fresh responses can raise these ceilings by allowing repeated calls to accumulate independent evidence toward correct or high-quality outputs. In the binary single-informative-query case, the error probability decreases exponentially in the number of calls to the same query at the Chernoff rate. For output quality, query-count bounds characterize threshold stopping when the score function is incorporated as part of the SOTM, and majority-based amplification bounds characterize the binary candidate-output model when it is not. Together, the results identify how response reuse, transcript information, and access to the score function determine what an SOTM can compute and at what token cost.

AI-augmented computing delegates natural language queries, code generation requests, and other open-ended tasks to a cluster of AI models that processes queries and generates responses. This paradigm introduces a resource dimension that neither classical time nor space complexity captures: the cost of sending queries to and receiving responses from such a cluster. We introduce token complexity, a formal resource measure defined as the minimum expected token cost to achieve a specified level of output quality on a task, and develop a taxonomy classifying AI systems by the strength of their probabilistic properties. We develop token complexity within the framework of AI-Oracle Turing machines, in which a probabilistic Turing machine interacts with a stochastic oracle via dedicated query and response tapes. We prove basic theorems establishing that token complexity behaves as expected: monotonicity (higher quality costs more tokens), convexity (quality improvements become progressively more expensive), price sensitivity (small price changes produce bounded cost changes), and price-relativity of task ordering (the token complexity ordering of tasks can reverse depending on the query-to-response cost ratio). We prove that the complexity frontier, defined as the set of all feasible resource bounds in tokens, time, and space, is non-empty, upward-closed, and convex.

Agentic AI development today runs on token maxing: buying capability with tokens -- longer reasoning traces, more turns, wider tool payloads, bigger replayed contexts -- so tokens per task grow faster than task value. Falling per-token prices mask the pattern; total spend rises anyway. We argue the decisive lever against token maxing is the harness: the orchestration layer that assembles context, exposes tools, sequences turns, delegates work, and carries enterprise observability and governance. We isolate it with a controlled swap: 22 locked evaluation tasks, six foundation models (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1, Gemini Flash 3.5, Qwen 3.6, GLM 5.1, Palmyra X6), changing only the orchestration layer -- a frozen conventional production loop versus the Writer Agent Harness. Holding models constant, the harness cuts blended cost per task 41% ($0.21->$0.12), median wall-clock 44% (48s->27s), and tokens per task 38% (14.2k->8.8k), with task-completion quality at parity (0.78->0.81, directional at this sample size). Efficiency is model-invariant -- every model gets cheaper (33-61%) -- while quality gains are capability-dependent: a model's gain correlates almost perfectly with its baseline strength (r=0.99, n=6), a phenomenon we term harness leverage. Quality per dollar rises 82%; task-completions per million tokens rise from 54.9 to 92.0. On this workload the orchestration layer moved cost per task more than the full spread of the model menu did. We formalize token economics at the orchestration layer (including effective input price under prompt caching), detail the six mechanism families behind the effect -- cache-shape discipline to failure-spend governance -- compare six widely used agent systems on the same axes, and argue the harness is the one component whose efficiency multiplies across every model an organization runs -- present and future.